Israel and U.S. intelligence on Hezbollah displayed some shocking failures, especially with Tel Aviv and Washington apparently ignorant that Iran had supplied the Lebanese Shiite militia with upgraded Silkworm missiles, the kind that sank an Israeli warship off the coast of Lebanon during the first week of hostilities. Several intelligence sources concur that intelligence on Hezbollah installations on the ground had been inadequate in many cases.

Michael Vlahos of Johns Hopkins told United Press International, "Israel had three years to prepare for this (war with Lebanon). This is totally inexcusable. The IDF (Israel Defense Force) has been arrogant."

Philip Coyle, a senior adviser at the Center for Defense Information and a former assistant secretary of defense, agrees there are striking similarities between the U.S. operation in Iraq and Israel's in Lebanon. For example, Coyle compared the U.S. bombing campaign in Iraq to Israel's relentless pounding of south Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs.

"I can see there are some parallels between Iraq and south Lebanon," said Coyle. "One of them is you don't win the hearts and minds by pounding them to death. It looks to me that it is hard to pound the bejesus out of south Lebanon hoping the community will throw Hezbollah out."

Israel also miscalculated on the human intelligence front: the Israeli military had hoped that several days of intensive bombardment of Hezbollah positions and suspected positions along with the destruction of a good part of the country's infrastructure, such as bridges, roads, the airport and electric and water stations, combined with a naval, air and land blockade would lead to the capitulations of Hezbollah and a quick victory.

"That was our plan in the beginning of Iraq," Coyle told UPI. "When we couldn't tell who the bad guys were, we ended up killing civilians.

"The U.S. intelligence system did not have good access (in Iraq)," he continued. "We didn't have the language we need and some deep intelligence. Now we don't even know what Israel is doing."

The former assistant secretary for defense said that this is exactly what is happening in Lebanon today, with close to 400 Lebanese civilians killed -- so far.

The stiff resistance put up by Lebanon's Shiite Hezbollah guerrilla fighters in the face of a far superior military force -- one that is better equipped, better trained, better fed, and supported by the most sophisticated gadgetry in the world and backed up by the most competent airpower on the planet -- has surprised more than one military analyst.

Israel, much like the United States in Iraq, believed it could conduct this war largely thanks to its total control of the air and sea lanes. Israeli war planners believed that bombing Lebanon's infrastructure during the first few days of the conflict would accomplish two objectives.

First, it would succeed in distancing Hezbollah from the Lebanese people. In fact, it had the reverse effect. While it is true that many Lebanese were angered by Hezbollah's unilateral action along the Lebanese-Israeli border -- the kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and the killing of eight others -- that brought the wrath of Israel's military might upon their country, Israel's collective punishment of the Lebanese has turned the vast majority of the population against Israel, not Hezbollah.

And even if among some Lebanese political circles there is a feeling that "Hezbollah will have a lot to answer for once this is all over," the overall mood at the moment is one of support, rather than reproach, for the Lebanese Shiite movement.

Second, Israel believed that the weakening of Hezbollah would strengthen the Lebanese government. Again, they miscalculated. The continued bombing, now backed by limited incursion by the infantry, has given Hezbollah greater luster and increased the risk of dividing the Lebanese government.

But other analysts disagree.

Anthony Cordesman, from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, asserts the "truth is that in all wars there is miscalculation. It happens in all military encounters." True, military planners will tell you that the best laid out plans change the minute the first bullet is fired and from then on military planners need to scramble to keep up with the changing phases of the war.

Still, the fact remains that Israel, much like the United States in Iraq, underestimated the strength and the tenacity of the enemy. Much like the United States in Iraq, Israel expected somewhat of a cakewalk in their campaign to break the back of Hezbollah's militia. But the reality, as we have seen, paints a very different picture.

Serving senior and former U.S. intelligence officials said that this latest Israeli onslaught against Hezbollah will work to further undermine Israel's security in the near future. They said that officials in the Bush administration appear to be laboring under several potentially disastrous illusions.

Top of that list is the belief that Hezbollah can be uprooted and destroyed. In fact, Hezbollah is an integral part of Lebanese society and an authentic representative of the Shiite population. It cannot be gotten rid of by bombing installations or capturing strong points.

Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence officials believe that Hezbollah will continue to fire missiles at Israeli targets and expect that within the next few days Tel Aviv itself could be hit by long range Iranian-supplied missiles.

The need for a durable cease-fire is now all the more pressing. -- (Comments may be sent to [email protected].)

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