FERC's "Energy Infrastructure Update" report for January 2025 documented the deployment of 63 solar projects totaling 2,945 megawatts (MW) and five wind projects totaling 1,301-MW. These two renewable sources made up 98.4% of all new capacity added in the month, with natural gas and oil providing minor additions of 60-MW and 11-MW, respectively.
Solar alone comprised 68.2% of new capacity, more than double the solar installations from January 2024 (1,176-MW). Notable contributors included twelve 74.5-MW projects by Florida Power and Light and Indiana's 435.0-MW Dunns Bridge Solar Project. Major solar additions in Texas included the 245.8-MW Porter, 240.6-MW 7V, and 195.4-MW Angelo projects, while Ohio added the 190.0-MW Atlanta Farms solar facility.
From September 2023 through January 2025, solar has consistently been the top contributor to new generating capacity each month.
Wind power provided the majority of the remaining new capacity (30.1%) and achieved its strongest monthly performance since 2023. Key wind installations included Wyoming's 390.4-MW Cedar Springs Wind IV and 330.0-MW Boswell Wind Farm, Illinois' 300.0-MW Prosperity Wind Farm, and Oregon's 201.0-MW Golden Hills Wind Farm Expansion.
Cumulatively, solar now represents 10.5% and wind 11.8% of total U.S. utility-scale generating capacity, for a combined share of 22.3%. Including small-scale solar systems, which FERC does not count but comprise roughly 30% of U.S. solar capacity, the total share from solar and wind rises to over 25%.
Renewable energy's footprint is even larger when hydropower (7.6%), biomass (1.1%), and geothermal (0.3%) are included, bringing the total to 31.3% of U.S. utility-scale generating capacity. Factoring in small-scale solar, renewables collectively approach one-third of total U.S. generating capacity.
Looking ahead, FERC projects 89,033-MW of "high probability" solar additions from February 2025 through January 2028, nearly quadruple the 22,312-MW expected from wind. Hydropower (1,319-MW) and geothermal (92-MW) are also forecast to grow modestly, while biomass is expected to decline by 130-MW.
Renewable sources are set to add 112,626-MW over this three-year period, with solar making up 79% of that total and wind another 20%. No new nuclear projects are expected, and coal and oil are projected to shrink by 24,940-MW and 2,237-MW, respectively. Natural gas would see a modest increase of 455-MW.
Should these forecasts hold, by February 2028, solar will comprise 16.2% and wind 12.6% of utility-scale capacity, surpassing coal (12.4%) and significantly exceeding nuclear and hydropower (each 7.3%). Given current trends, solar capacity is poised to exceed coal and wind within two years, making it second only to natural gas.
Renewables are currently expanding their share by about two percentage points annually. By early 2028, they are projected to supply 37.4% of utility-scale capacity, closing in on natural gas at 40.2%, with solar and wind comprising over 75% of the renewable total.
Including small-scale solar, total U.S. solar capacity could surpass 325-GW within three years, pushing renewables past 40% of installed capacity while natural gas declines to about 37%.
FERC also notes that the pipeline of potential net additions includes 220,767-MW of solar, 68,409-MW of wind, 9,833-MW of hydropower, 201-MW of geothermal, and 39-MW of biomass. In contrast, natural gas could add 18,363-MW. If realized, renewables' share could grow even more rapidly.
"The Biden era closed out with record-setting solar additions and a rebound in new wind capacity," noted the SUN DAY Campaign's executive director Ken Bossong. "Whether solar, wind, and other renewables can continue that growth under the policies of the Trump Administration remains to be seen."
Notes: [1] In a September 12, 2023 news release, EIA states: "More than one-third of U.S. solar power capacity is small-scale solar. ... We expect small-scale solar capacity ... will grow from 44-GW in June 2023 to 55-GW by the end of 2024." See: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/BTL/2023/09-smallscalesolar/article.php [2] Generating capacity is not the same as actual generation. Fossil fuels and nuclear power generally have higher "capacity factors" than do wind and solar. EIA reports capacity factors in calendar year 2024 for nuclear power and combined-cycle natural gas plants were 92.3% and 59.7% respectively while those for wind and utility-scale solar PV were 34.3% and 23.4%. See Tables 6.07.A and 6.07.B in EIA's most recent "Electric Power Monthly" report.
Research Report:Energy Infrastructure Update for January 2025
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