The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration used a computer model to estimate the likelihood that toxic crude will ride the Loop Current into the Gulf Stream, which whips around the southern tip of Florida and up the eastern US seaboard.

The study found that much of Florida's western coastline along the Gulf "has a low probability (one to 20 percent) for impact," while the Florida Keys, Miami, and Fort Lauderdale areas "have a greater probability (61 to 80 percent)."

Officials for weeks have warned that oil in the Gulf could get sucked into the Loop Current, but an oil pollution likelihood of up to 80 percent at top beaches will be unwelcome news for Florida just as it gears up for the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

The Sunshine State is one of the busiest tourism destinations in the country, with 80 million visitors in 2009 and a tourism industry that rakes in 60 billion dollars per year.

NOAA said that given the time it takes for the oil pollution to reach Florida's southeastern shores, it would "degrade, disperse, lose toxicity, and break into streamers and tar balls."

"A projected threat to the shoreline does not necessarily mean that oil will come ashore," NOAA said. "It means that oil or streamers or tar balls are likely to be in the general vicinity," within 20 miles -- 32 kilometers -- of the coast.

In any case, the report added, "winds and currents will have to move the oil or tar balls onto the shore," adding that booms and other countermeasures could be used to "mitigate the potential coastal contact once oil is in the area."

"The US coastlines with the highest probability (81-100 percent) for impact -- from the Mississippi River Delta to the panhandle of Florida -- are already receiving oil," NOAA said. Most beaches along that stretch of coast have been closed to the public.

"This NOAA model shows where oil may be likely to travel, thereby giving coastal states and communities information about potential threats of shoreline impacts," said NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco.

The computer model "assumes that oil is released at an average rate of 33,000 barrels per day for 90 days," NOAA said.

Since the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded on April 20 and sank two days later off the Louisiana coast, an estimated 1.6 million to 3.6 million barrels of oil have gushed into the ocean from a ruptured wellhead on the ocean floor.

The explosion killed 11 workers and triggered the worst environmental disaster in US history.

earlier related report
BP boss takes spill questions in open Internet event
Washington (AFP) July 1, 2010 - BP's new face for the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster, managing director Bob Dudley, admitted faults Thursday in the firm's spill response during a unique question-and-answer forum broadcast live online.

"The clean-up effort has not been perfect," Dudley confessed to a questioner in the Google- and YouTube-partnered event hosted by PBS public television's "NewsHour" program. "There have been gaps in the defenses."

Billed as "America speaks to BP," the one-hour interview gave Gulf native Dudley a chance to distance the oil giant from the gaffe-prone leadership of its British chief executive Tony Hayward, who handed over the reins after enduring weeks of criticism and ridicule for his handling of the catastrophe.

The spill "will change the oil industry forever," Dudley said. Concerned and sometimes angry Americans submitted their questions via YouTube, Google and the PBS website.

"Safety standards need to be understood and increased," he said, adding the spill and his company's response were part of a "game-changing event for the oil and gas industry" with ramifications stretching beyond the Gulf of Mexico.

Speaking with candor and a subtle southern US accent -- in contrast to Hayward's sardonic British tones that irked many Americans -- Dudley also emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable BP to fulfill its obligations in the region.

"We will find a way to shut this well off, and then we will continue to devote all the resources necessary through the Unified Command," which oversees the different agencies and organizations responding to the spill, he vowed.

"To clean up the Gulf and restore it to the way it was, and having a strong BP is important for us to be able to do that."

But Dudley also acknowledged the cleanup effort would "take years."

Despite its tumbling stock value since the spill began on April 22, BP remains a "very strong company in terms of its cash flow," he insisted.

The energy giant has already disbursed over 130 million dollars in emergency payments to fishermen and others affected by the slick.

"It's important to have a strong and viable BP... We need to have some certainty for our investments so we can continue to generate the cash that will allow us to make good on our obligations and commitments and claims," Dudley said.

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