China Must Ramp Up Wind and Solar for 2035 Climate Targets
by Clarence Oxford
Los Angeles CA (SPX) May 19, 2025

China must generate over half of its electricity from wind and solar by 2035 to align with international climate goals, according to a new study by the University of California San Diego. The research outlines a path for China's power sector to significantly cut fossil fuel use while increasing renewable energy capacity.

The study, published in Cell Reports Sustainability, coincides with the anticipated release of updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. These five-year climate plans, originally due in February, are expected to play a crucial role in defining global emission reduction pathways. Given that China accounts for nearly 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions-more than twice that of the United States-its 2035 NDC is seen as critical for global climate efforts.

"In order to limit global warming to well below 2C, China's power sector must make a significant shift toward clean energy," said Michael Davidson, the study's corresponding author and an assistant professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy and the Jacobs School of Engineering at UC San Diego. "There's no solution to climate change without China."

The study's findings suggest that wind and solar should provide up to 56% of China's electricity by 2035, a significant increase from 18% in 2024. Including hydro, nuclear, and biomass, clean energy could comprise nearly 80% of China's power generation, dramatically reducing the share of coal and natural gas to as low as 20%.

Davidson emphasized that setting clear generation share targets is crucial for long-term power sector planning, as these benchmarks can help maintain momentum despite economic and energy demand uncertainties. The researchers recommend China aim to deploy between 2,910 and 3,800 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar power by 2035, up from about 1,200 GW today. This would require installing 120-220 GW of new capacity annually-a pace that China already surpassed in 2024 with a record 357 GW.

"It's feasible and pragmatic," Davidson noted. "These targets reflect cautious optimism, grounded in current capacity and policy momentum."

The study modeled various pathways for China's power sector, incorporating technical constraints and regional differences in renewable potential. The authors argue that ambitious but achievable targets for wind and solar can provide a practical roadmap for policymakers.

Research Report:Ratcheting up wind and solar targets for decarbonizing the power sector in China and beyond

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