Fears are growing that strife-torn Yemen, the Arab world's poorest nation, will became another failed state like nearby Somalia as embattled President Ali Abdullah Saleh refuses to step down in the face of deepening civil conflict.

Scores of people were killed when troops loyal to Saleh, who has ruled since 1978, machine-gunned protesters in Sanaa in recent days and armed tribesmen seeking his ouster retaliated.

The ferocious bloodletting indicated the 8-month-old uprising to end the autocratic Saleh's 33-year rule may be coming to a head.

But, observed British commentator Simon Tisdall in The Guardian newspaper, "The interests of two key outside players, the United States and Saudi Arabia, remain focused more on strategic security and terrorism concerns than on spreading democracy and prosperity in the Arabian Peninsula."

The main target of U.S. and Saudi concern is al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, the jihadists' most active and aggressive branch.

Intelligence chiefs in Washington and Riyadh consider AQAP to be a more dangerous threat than al-Qaida central, based in the badlands of Pakistan.

Al-Qaida has been seriously weakened by the May 2 assassination of Osama bin Laden by U.S. Navy SEALs and the steady attrition of its operational commanders, killed or captured, many in U.S. drone strikes, over the last year or so.

So emboldened is AQAP that it has seized and held several important cities and town in southern Yemen, openly defying Saleh's forces and the attacks by killer drones of the CIA and the U.S. military's Joint Special Operations Command.

Unilateral U.S. attacks have intensified in recent months as Saleh's control was eroded by street protests and major defections within his military to tribal groupings frustrated by his refusal to relinquish power.

Saleh narrowly survived a June 3 bombing in his palace, which killed several close associates. He was whisked away to Riyadh for treatment.

There were expectations he'd remain in exile and agree to a deal proposed by the Saudis and their Gulf Cooperation Council partners under which he would hand over power to his deputy in return for immunity from arrest and trial.

But Saleh confounded everyone by returning to Sanaa last week after 16 weeks in Riyadh. He talked vaguely of a transition of power but it seemed clear he wasn't prepared to reach a settlement.

That makes the battle for control of Sanaa, which has intensified in recent weeks, the main focus of the rivalry within Yemen's political elite.

Both Saleh and his main rival, Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, commander of the elite 1st Armored Division and arguably Yemen's most influential military leader who defected to the opposition several months ago, appear to be squaring off for a showdown.

In the meantime, Yemen, an ancient land once ruled by the legendary Queen of Sheba, is steadily going down the tubes.

Age-old tribal feuds, acutely sharpened by pro-democracy uprising against Saleh that erupted in January, a collapsing economy, shrinking oil reserves and a rapidly dwindling water supply are all taking a steady toll.

"One of the reasons Saleh is feeling confident enough to attempt his offensive against the opposition is the quiet support he is receiving from Yemen's main foreign stakeholders," the Saudis, says the U.S. security think tank Stratfor.

They invested in Saleh because they saw him as the key buffer against al-Qaida and the threat it poses to them.

That threat would escalate if al-Qaida is able to plunge Yemen into a political vacuum, as there's been in Somalia since 1991 after dictator Siad Barre was toppled by warlords.

That's probably why the Saudis let Saleh return to Sanaa. But there's a deepening rift within the Saudi leadership over whether to stick with him, or make a deal with Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar.

The Americans, despite urging Saleh to hand over power, have also invested in building a new intelligence elite around him to overwhelm AQAP sympathizers who have infested Yemen's security services for years.

"Saleh for all his faults was a staunch post-9/11 'war on terror' ally," noted The Guardian's Tisdall.

"The bottom-line fear shared in European capitals is that without Saleh, Yemen could become a failed state, threatening Saudi Arabia's soft underbelly and thus Western oil and gas supplies … Fears grow that Yemen could be reincarnated as Somalia II."

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