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POLITICAL ECONOMY
World Bank warns China over state financial control
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) July 1, 2015


China manufacturing sees slight pick-up in June: govt
Beijing (AFP) July 1, 2015 - Chinese manufacturing activity saw a slight improvement in June, official data suggested Wednesday, but analysts said more stimulus to the world's number two economy would likely be needed to re-energise the sector.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) came in at 50.2 last month, matching May's six-month high.

The index, which tracks activity in factories and workshops, is seen as a key barometer of the country's economic health. A figure above 50 signals growth, while anything below indicates contraction.

Production increased steadily in June with high-technology and consumer product-related industries picking up, said senior NBS analyst Zhao Qinghe in a statement.

But "companies' intrinsic growth momentum was still insufficient as demand from both domestic and foreign markets remained relatively weak", Zhao said.

"The difficulties faced by firms in their production and business management are yet to be mitigated effectively," Zhao said, adding more companies complained about limited liquidity.

A separate, independent survey sponsored by British banking giant HSBC was less positive, showing manufacturing conditions continued to deteriorate in June, albeit at a slower rate.

Its final PMI figure registered 49.4 in June, up slightly from May's 49.2 and the strongest since 49.6 in March, as overall demand improved tentatively, said a statement released by Markit, an information services provider that compiled the survey.

But it was lower than the preliminary June reading of 49.6 and was the fourth consecutive month that HSBC's gauge has indicated contraction.

The figure "pointed to a further decline in the health of the manufacturing sector in June", Markit economist Annabel Fiddes said in the statement.

This was predominantly driven by the sharpest rate of job shedding across the sector since early 2009, while output also fell slightly on the month.

"It is likely that more stimulus measures will be required to ensure that the sector can regain growth momentum and to encourage job creation," she added.

China's economic growth slowed to 7.4 percent in 2014, the weakest rate in 24 years. In the first quarter it eased further to 7.0 percent, a post global financial crisis low, prompting further interventions by Beijing to bolster growth.

The People's Bank of China on Saturday announced interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points -- the fourth reduction since November.

It also reduced for the third time this year the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve, in a bid to kickstart lending.

The government is slated to release April-July GDP growth data on July 15.

The World Bank on Wednesday urged China to accelerate reform of its state-dominated financial sector, warning that failure to address the issue could end "three decades of stellar performance" for the world's second-largest economy.

The ruling Communist Party has pledged a wide range of economic reforms and the Washington-based institution said reducing the "unique and distorted role of the state" in banking and the wider financial sector was crucial.

"Wasteful investment, overindebtedness, and a weakly regulated shadow-banking system," had to be addressed for the broader agenda to succeed, it said.

The comments in the China Economic Update were unusually forthright for the World Bank.

"Unlike other countries, in China the state still maintains pervasive ownership and control of banks and other financial institutions," it said, including with powerful internal Communist Party committees and authorities appointing and dismissing top executives.

"The state has formal ownership of 65 percent of commercial bank assets and de facto control of 95 percent of these assets, making it an outlier by international standards."

In some cases, it added, authorities were simultaneously owners, regulators and customers of banks.

China's financial system was still "unbalanced, repressed, costly to maintain, and potentially unstable", the bank said, repeating its description from a 2012 report.

"Urgency for fundamental reform has further intensified as excess capacity and indebtedness in many economic segments accumulate, amid growing evidence of financial distress," it said.

"Failure to address these outcomes could deflect the economic trajectory after three decades of stellar performance."

In the document, the World Bank left its economic growth estimate for China this year at 7.1 percent.

"Progress in rebalancing the sources of growth in domestic demand will remain incremental," it said.

China's leaders are trying to engineer a transformation of the country's growth model whereby consumer demand becomes the main driver rather than investment.

"China's financial system was developed to serve the old investment-driven growth model, which is not effective currently but was effective in the past," World Bank senior economist Karlis Smits said at a briefing on the report.

"Comprehensive reforms in the financial sector should enable the financial system to reallocate credit to those sectors that can maintain reasonable growth over the medium-term," he added.

China has set itself a target of about 7.0 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) for this year, though weak data during the first half of the year has led many private economists to predict the final figure could be lower.

The World Bank kept its GDP growth forecast for next year in China at 7.0 percent and at 6.9 percent in 2017.

Smits stressed, however, that the organisation was well aware of potential hazards facing China's economy.

"We are very cognisant of significant downside risks to our baseline scenario", he said, citing indebtedness in China's corporate sector among other dangers.

Efforts to transform China's economy over the long-term could produce negative short-term effects, he added.

"Reforms to address excess capacity in select industries would have impact on employment levels," he said.


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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China manufacturing sees slight pick-up in June
Beijing (AFP) July 1, 2015
Chinese manufacturing activity saw a slight improvement in June, official data suggested Wednesday, but analysts said more stimulus to the world's number two economy would likely be needed to re-energise the sector. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) came in at 50.2 last month, matching May's six-month high. The index, whic ... read more


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