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With sanctions decision, Bush takes new tack on South Asia

is proliferation just the inevitable outcome of globalization

 Washington (AFP) Sept. 23, 2001
Though all sides deny it, the US move to dispose of sanctions which punished India and Pakistan's 1998 nuclear tests is being seen as a prompt reward for their support of America's war on terrorism.

President George W. Bush's decision will provide an element of political and economic relief to Pakistan, which has faced fierce US diplomatic pressure since terrorists struck Washington and New York on September 11.

Washington strongarmed Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf into turning away from Afghanistan's Taliban militia which harbors the man Bush says is the main suspect in the attacks, Osama bin Laden.

US officials told AFP last week they were closely watching domestic pressure faced by Musharraf from hardline Moslems: the demise of the sanctions at least offers him a political dividend for cooperating with Washington.

Even so, the White House says Bush's decision to waive sanctions, made public late Saturday, is not connected to the aftermath of the terror attacks but is the result of a careful reorientation of US South Asia policy.

"We had advanced our non-proliferation goals with these sanctions, so the job was done and we are now lifting them," spokeswoman Jeanie Mamo said.

Pakistan's ambassador to Washington denied Sunday that the sanctions were lifted as a reward for Islamabad's support.

"There is no question of bargaining, no quid pro quo," said Maleeha Lodhi on CNN.

Pakistani diplomats here told AFP that they saw the move as a simple recognition by the United States that the sanctions were unfair.

Their view is backed up by the evidence of the first eight months of the administration: Bush aides made no secret of the fact that they believed the sanctions, imposed by former president Bill Clinton, were obsolete.

Both India and Pakistan had been lobbying hard for the lifting of the measures, which restricted military sales, financial and economic assistance.

The impact of the Bush waiver will be felt most in Pakistan, where the government is struggling to prop up an economy which recently tottered on the verge of bankruptcy.

It means that Washington can now support aid to Pakistan in packages from bodies like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, and offers the prospect of more US private investment in the country.

For India, which has a more robust economy and saw a number of its restrictions eased by Clinton, the impact is largely symbolic.

Bush's move comes against a backdrop of shifting US policy on South Asia, which dated from the former president Bill Clinton administration.

Washington had moved away from Pakistan, a key Cold War ally, towards India, which formerly leaned close to the Soviet Union, seeing its goals, democracy and economic interests increasingly shared by New Delhi.

Diplomats say that India also had stressed the need to lift the sanctions, while offering enthusiastic support for Bush's plans for missile defense.

But the terror crisis has once again underlined the need for the United States to maintain good relations with Pakistan, and Islamabad has been keen to parlay its influence to seek diplomatic gains over New Delhi.

While there was substantial support in Congress, targeted by India in a slick lobbying operation, for the lifting of the sanctions, there has been concern over the message such a move sends on nuclear proliferation.

Congressional sources told AFP that the classified congressional briefings featured a major push by some members who want to see sanctions immediately reimposed in the event of new nuclear tests.

There is concern here that the bitter conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir could flare up again -- with nuclear weapons further inflaming the situation.

A separate set of sanctions imposed to punish Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf for overturning Nawaz Sharif's government will only be lifted when democracy is restored.

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