Will Takaichi's win calm strained Japan-China ties?

By Mathias CENA
Tokyo (AFP) Feb 9, 2026
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide win handed her a strong mandate for her tough stance on China, which is set to include beefed up Japanese defence and potentially more statements Beijing won't like.

But what's not yet clear is whether the power she has been handed will bring greater stability to the Pacific or cement a new era of geopolitical strain.

After Sunday's election victory, she possesses an unusual degree of latitude to accelerate military spending and overhaul Japans's defence, unnerving Beijing.

The former coalition partner of her LDP party, the moderate Komeito, had acted as a brake on defence issues over previous years.

But her new junior partner, the Japan Innovation Party (JIP), "favours strengthening security, so there is no doubt that Takaichi will push bold policies," Tetsuo Kotani, chief research fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA), told AFP.

"Japan's increased defence spending will heighten China's suspicions even further," he said.

The election campaign focused mainly on the economy -- especially inflation -- and on Takaichi's tough stance on immigration.

But her image has become tied to the diplomatic row with China sparked in November, when she suggested Tokyo could intervene militarily if Beijing sought to take self-ruled Taiwan by force.

China regards the democratic island as part of its territory and has not ruled out force to annex it.

An angry Beijing then advised its citizens against travel to Japan and tightened controls on exports to Japan for items with potential military uses, fuelling worries that Beijing may choke supplies of vital rare earth minerals.

Yet in comments just hours after her big win, Takaichi sounded a diplomatic note, saying: "Our nation is open to various dialogues with China."

- US alliance -

"Projecting herself as Asia's Thatcher she has shown a tough streak the public admires," said Jeff Kingston, professor of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo.

Her image, as well as firm control over her party after the election victory, will be likely visible in Japan's defence capabilities.

Takaichi on Monday vowed that Japan would "steadfastly protect its territory, territorial waters, airspace".

"No one will come to the aid of a nation that lacks the resolve to defend itself with its own hands," she said.

To boost military deterrence, Takaichi wants to continue easing Japan's stringent rules on exporting military equipment and to revise its principles against atomic weapons, noted Yee Kuang Heng of the University of Tokyo.

Her priority list also includes strengthening cooperation with London and Rome on a supersonic fighter jet project and accelerating defence spending so it reaches two percent of GDP as early as this year.

The moves are aimed as much at deterrence as speaking the language of US President Donald Trump, who has urged allies to contribute more.

Takaichi will be able "highlight Japan's position as a key ally of Washington in Asia," said Kingston.

As her party romped to victory, Takaichi thanked Trump on X for his "warm words" endorsing her, saying she looked forward to visiting the White House this spring and that "the potential of our Alliance is LIMITLESS".

But with the United States and Europe also moving to strengthen ties with China, "Beijing may try to isolate Japan", warned Kotani.

Trump is expected to go to China in April, and he has said he he will host Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the White House later this year.

- 'Turning up the heat' -

Despite the potential for escalation, analysts said Takaichi's staying power could in fact ease tensions with China.

"Beijing recognises strength and could calculate that she has more staying power than anticipated and had not buckled under pressure, and therefore will have to somehow deal with her," Heng said.

Economic interdependence between the two Asian powers also "creates incentives on both sides to manage relations and avoid extreme actions", Kingston added.

"Now that China understands she will be around for a while it will be rethinking how to insulate economic relations from diplomatic spats."

Having demonstrated her firmness to the Japanese public and with no need to worry about elections until 2028, Takaichi may also see it in her interests to improve relations with Beijing.

On Sunday, she suggested she would seek "proper understanding from neighbouring countries" before visiting Yasakuni, a shine honouring war dead that she has been to on many occasions. Past visits by senior politicians have angered China and South Korea.

Yet even if relations warm, China is likely to continue use Takaichi's statements as a pretext to justify expanding its military activities, analysts said.

"By insisting on retraction China is trying to humiliate her and turning up the heat on the controversy," Kingston said.

"Perhaps it is a useful distraction for Xi's domestic audience but it is unclear how this stance enhances national interests."

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