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Where did all the launchers go?
Washington - March 14, 1999 - 
Washington - March 14, 1999 - With space business booming, and increasing uses for low Earth orbit being proposed nearly every week, the space launch industry is supposed to be riding the crest of a very big wave. At least, in theory. But a careful look at last year's statistics shows something a bit different- and not particularly a rosy picture at that.For the issue of what Arianespace's Doug Heydon calls "manifest management" has emerged to become a serious roadblock to commercial launch. Why? Consider these facts about last year's launch record: for the first time since the beginning of the commercial space "boom" of recent years, there were less launch vehicle activity than the previous year. When 1998 began, there were projections of 32 commercial satellites to be lofted into GTO . But by the time the year ended, only 24 had flown. In 1997, 30 commercial sats were sent to GTO. So why the drop? Certainly it wasn't because demand was declining. Instead, it was because in most (but not all) cases, the booster was left waiting at the pad. Late deliveries, schedule problems with suppliers, and in-orbit anomalies with existing birds were the main cause of the disruption. Along with the large telecommunications spacecraft, 1998 saw 11 launches of 43 smaller satellites for new constellations, and 11 military and civil space missions. So who leads? Last year, France's Arianespace retained their hold on GTO, sending up 60% of the large satellites. But overall, the mix of smaller wireless services spacecraft when added to the market gave U.S. carriers the edge-but no one launcher dominated. The totals:
This means that between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, 18 of the 43 launches were U.S. vehicles. If you add the commercial Proton operated for Lockmart, that total reaches 25 of 43. The combination of flexibility of the U.S. launch vehicle fleet plus launch availability has helped strengthen the American presence. This issue has not been lost on the French, who embarked on a cost-cutting program for the next batches of Ariane 5 boosters as 1998 came to an end. And look for consolidations in Europe's aerospace industry to push that competitive edge even sharper. Along with perhaps a new small European launcher to supplement Starsem's Soyuz U variants. But "manifest management" remains a serious problem for all launch providers. Solutions? Perhaps not yet in sight, but the industry is getting serious about identifying the problem- and so are the U.S. government agencies responsible for issuing the licenses themselves. What can they do about this? More about that later.
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