With the cease-fire now in effect, and apparently holding, despite some minor skirmishes, the combatants will begin to reintegrate civilian life, but not before readying the tanks, cannons, rockets, launchers and other machines of war they will need for the next phase. Many analysts believe it is only a matter of time before Hezbollah and Israel resume where they left of.

The 31-day war claimed the lives of some 1,200 Lebanese civilians, wounded more than 3,698 and displaced close to 1 million people on the Lebanon side of the border. Israel, for its part, lost more than 100 soldiers. Nearly 50 civilians were killed by the deluge of about 4,000 rockets fired by Hezbollah on Israel. It forced the evacuation of almost a million residents from northern Israel to seek refuge in safer parts of the country in the center and the south.

As political and military strategists begin dissecting what went right and what went wrong in this war, many questions will crop up, particularly the one many Israelis will be asking: what exactly has been accomplished in exchange of all this blood?

The optimist could see the glass as half full, and claim a victory of sorts. From the Israeli perspective the accomplishments of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's government in conducting this war came in well below expectations. Israel wanted, or rather needed, to score a clear victory against Hezbollah. Israel's military machine fully expected to crush the Lebanese Shiite movement, considered to be a terrorist organization by Israel and the United States, within days. Yet in a month of heavy bombardment and ferocious fighting, some of it hand-to-hand combat, in villages along the Lebanese-Israeli border, Hezbollah was not defeated as expected.

In fact, Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah wasted no time to go on television Sunday night and declared "a victory for all of Lebanon." Never mind that much of the country's infrastructure lies in ruin.

Second, the initial trigger of this latest Middle East war -- the capture of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah militiamen -- remains unsolved, despite repeated demands from Israel for the release of the soldiers. That did not come about. In short, Israel's two objectives for waging war were not met.

Although the destruction of property and loss of life in Lebanon is far greater, the negative after shock of the war for Israel will be greater. This is the first time since the war of independence that war comes to Israel. Besides the loss of productivity, the loss of revenue from tourists and visitors, the loss of human life and the destruction of private property, one should of course not forget the political debate that will take the Knesset by storm in the days and weeks to come. A storm in which Prime Minister Olmert will be fighting for his very political life.

The only positive aspect Israel can claim as a victory is the occupation by its forces of Lebanese territory from the international frontier to the Litani River. This is the buffer zone in which 15,000 troops of the Lebanese army and 15,000 blue-helmeted troops of the reinforced UNIFIL contingent, that Israel hopes will be able to keep armed Hezbollah guerrillas away from its border, will deploy.

Barring the loss of its fighters, sympathizers and party members, Hezbollah comes out of this war looking even stronger. The party's secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, is now more popular than ever. Hezbollah resisted some of the harshest aerial bombardment and put up stiff resistance against a superior, better armed, technologically advanced Israeli force. It broke the myth that the Israeli army was invincible.

The danger for Hezbollah now is that it gets caught up in its own rhetoric -- a typical Middle Eastern trait which could be qualified as the Gamal Abdul Nasser syndrome. Hezbollah has won probably as much as can be hoped on the battlefield. Their battle should now shift to the negotiating table. For the very sake of Lebanon's survival, Hezbollah must now consider morphing itself entirely into a political party. Especially if/when all Israeli troops withdraw from Lebanon, including from the Shebaa Farms, thereby removing all reasons for the resistance to continue to exist.

The paradox of Israel's war to eradicate Hezbollah is that it has strengthened it politically -- at least for the moment -- while weakening Olmert and his government. Olmert admitted as much, saying their were "deficiencies" in the management of the war.

Olmert's standing according to a Haaretz poll went from a high of 75 percent at the start of the war to a low of 48 percent. Amir Peretz, his minister of defense, fared even worse: he went from an approval rating of 65 percent to 37 percent.

In the meantime, some analysts believe Israel will be preparing for a bigger confrontation. -- (Comments may be sent to [email protected].)

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