This unprecedented heat has been attributed in part to the reemergence of the El Nino phenomenon after a seven-year hiatus, exacerbating the already rising temperatures due to global warming. The impact of this phenomenon is not just limited to the hotter days and seasons; it has serious implications for the upcoming winter trends of 2023/24.
The Short-Term Climate Prediction Team at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has conducted in-depth research to understand what the upcoming winter might hold. Utilizing advanced climate prediction systems, they have analyzed global climate anomalies and their potential impacts.
Their findings, published in the "Advances in Atmospheric Sciences," forecast the imminent maturation of a moderate to strong Eastern Pacific El Nino during the northern hemisphere's winter. This event is expected to trigger significant changes in atmospheric patterns, particularly affecting the winter climates of East Asia and North America.
One of the most significant findings of the report is the likelihood of an exceptionally warm winter in the mid-low latitudes of Eurasia and most parts of the Americas. There's a high probability, estimated at 95%, that the global average surface temperature for the 2023/24 winter will surpass all historical records. China, in particular, might experience surface temperatures more than double the usual, potentially setting a new record since 1991.
Understanding these climatic changes involves considering both internal variability and external forcings. The consecutive La Nina events from 2020 to 2022, which delayed the progression of global warming, highlight the complex interplay of these forces. Recent research from the United States has underscored the influence of external events like the 2019 Australian wildfires in triggering multi-year La Ninas. The mechanism proposed involves wildfire aerosols generating low clouds over the Southern Ocean, thereby reducing sea surface temperatures and shifting climatic zones.
The impact of such external forcings, while significant, is complex and not fully understood due to limited instances. However, studies of past climatic volcanic eruptions provide additional insights. Research by the Sun Yat-sen University Volcanic Research Team (Zhou and Liu, 2023) indicates that over the past millennium, eruptions of 26 Southern Hemisphere volcanoes frequently led to subsequent three-year periods of La Nina occurrences.
This confirms the hypothesis that cooling in the Southern Ocean can trigger these events. In a similar vein, the Australian wildfires have cooled the Southern Ocean through the formation of low clouds in the troposphere, comparable to how Southern Hemisphere volcanoes cool the ocean by reflecting sunlight with stratospheric aerosols.
In conclusion, the winter of 2023/24 is gearing up to be historically warm, influenced by the ongoing global warming trend and amplified by the El Nino phenomenon. These predictions underscore the complexity of our planet's climate system and the importance of continuous monitoring and research to understand and adapt to these changes.
Research Report:Will the globe encounter the warmest winter after the hottest summer in 2023?
Related Links
Zheng Lin Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Climate Science News - Modeling, Mitigation Adaptation
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