. Energy News .




.
POLITICAL ECONOMY
Walker's World: Euro crisis turns surreal
by Martin Walker
Paris (UPI) Oct 24, 2011


The euro crisis is becoming surreal in that everything that possibly could go wrong is now doing so, all at once.

The French and Germans, who command the resources of the eurozone's two largest economies, are at loggerheads. If they cannot agree on a policy, nothing gets done in Europe.

The French insist that the European Central Bank start creating money to finance the next phase of the endless euro rescue. The Germans decline, adding that their constitutional court says this couldn't be done legally, even if Berlin wanted to. And it doesn't.

The troika -- financial experts from the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- has reported that Greek debt is spiraling much faster than envisaged and the Greek economy is shrinking faster than anyone feared.

The troika report, delivered Saturday to the Brussels summit of European leaders and finance ministers, warned that the Greek bailout could require as much as $611 billion by 2020. This means Greece alone would take up all the funds available to the European Financial Stability Facility, which was supposed to be available for Portugal, Ireland and possibly Spain as well as Greece.

"The situation in Greece has taken a turn for the worse, with the economy increasingly adjusting through recession and related wage-price channels, rather than through structural reform-driven increases in productivity," the troika report said.

Even to get the Greek debt down to 120 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, private lenders to Greece would have to suffer a "haircut" or a loss of 50 percent of the money they lent, the troika added. And 120 percent of GDP is twice the level that the eurozone rules say should be the limit for a national economy.

These private lenders are mainly the European commercial banks, led by the French banks but with the German banks also at risk. For them to take such a cut, at a time when new bank regulations are requiring them to increase the amount of capital they hold (and thus to reduce the amount they can lend), will be very damaging indeed.

It means a credit crunch as the banks cut back on their lending to other European borrowers. That cuts down on Europe's dwindling hopes of growing out of this crisis.

It also means that these banks will have to raise fresh capital, at a time when their share prices and their credit ratings are low. Raising funds won't be easy and will probably be expensive. Some banks have already said they would rather shrink in size.

In the case of France, it is particularly difficult. Usually, French banks might expect their capital shortages to be restored by cash from the French state. But because of high debt levels the French state's own ratings are already at great risk of losing their AAA status. If that AAA status is lost, France will find it harder and more expensive to borrow on the global markets.

France simply has too many liabilities and cannot afford any more. That is why France wants the ECB to do any more bailing out, rather than the European member states like France. And the situation is so fraught that even re-capitalizing its own banks could send the French government's ratings down.

And at that point, the EFSF itself would be in trouble, since France's contribution would no longer be worth what it was.

What all this means is that the Greek crisis alone threatens to overwhelm the entire eurozone. It used to be thought, as recently as last week, that the danger of the Greek crisis was that it would start a cascade of other crises in Portugal, Spain and Italy. It still could. But Greece alone looks as if it could be sufficient to torpedo the euro.

The bad news doesn't end there. Italy's bond yields are back up to 6 percent, which for an economy at zero growth means that they are on the point of being too expensive to afford.

Portugal's finance minister announced Friday that he expects his country's economy to shrink by 2.8 percent next year after contracting 1.9 percent this year. This makes it all harder for Portugal to repay its debts. Accordingly, interest on Portugal's 10-year bond yields climbed to more than 12 percent Friday.

Defaults on loans in Spain rose to 7.14 percent Friday, an 18-year high.

Oh yes, and the troika reported that the hopes of raising $83 billion from privatizing Greek state-owned assets now looks like bringing in at least $28 billion less.

The latest leak from the Brussels summit meeting was that Europe's leaders were talking up the prospect of rising new cash from the sovereign wealth funds of Norway, the Middle Eastern countries and China. The question has apparently not been asked why these countries would want to risk their money when European leaders won't.

The most surreal part of the saga came this week from EU Internal Market Commissioner Michel Barnier, of France. In a confidential planning document that was leaked to the German media last week he suggested that EU financial authorities be given the legal right "temporarily to prohibit" the rating agencies from publishing reports suggesting that European member states might not be able to repay their debts.

Shooting the messenger is seldom a good idea. The surreal part is that Barnier also suggests that the ratings agency be liable for the economic costs that result from their analyses. Faced with penalties for telling the truth, the ratings agencies are left with the choice of silence or lies.

Related Links
The Economy




.
.
Get Our Free Newsletters Via Email
...
Buy Advertising Editorial Enquiries






.

. Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle



POLITICAL ECONOMY
China offers 'full fledged' support for G20 summit
Beijing (AFP) Oct 22, 2011
China on Saturday pledged "full fledged support" for next month's G20 leaders summit in France, as the deepening eurozone crisis threatens to tip the global economy back into recession. Vice Premier Wang Qishan, China's top official on financial affairs, made the comments during a meeting with French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe, who stopped over in the Chinese capital following a visit to ... read more


POLITICAL ECONOMY
California approves carbon cap-and-trade

China warns of winter power shortage

Links in the chain: Global carbon emissions and consumption

Serbia signs power plant deal with China

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Electrochemistry controlled with a plasma electrode

Using new technique, scientists uncover a delicate magnetic balance for superconductivity

Saudi royals face succession uncertainties

BP says reaches turning point, 18 months after oil disaster

POLITICAL ECONOMY
SeaRoc and CDS Wind sign joint agreement to deliver offshore renewable services

SeaRoc to provide two Meteorological Masts to Forewind on Round 3 Dogger Bank

Vestas receives 99MW order for Texas wind-energy project

GE invests in Indian wind power

POLITICAL ECONOMY
PHAT Energy Releases Sunpower Version Of The Successful PHATport

SunConnect Signs Agreement with Macy's To Develop Roof-Mounted PV System

GE Energy and Inovateus Solar Partner on Solar Carport Charging Stations

PHAT Energy's Solar Structures Now Expand Indefinitely With The 350D

POLITICAL ECONOMY
'Iran has problems with nuclear program'

ElBaradei sees growth in nuclear power

Bulgaria signs deal for radioactive waste depot

Japanese village reconsiders nuclear power

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Greenpeace targets Neste Oil over palm oil production

Global Biofuels Market Value to Double by 2021

Production of biofuel from forests will increase greenhouse emissions

Dividing corn stover makes ethanol conversion more efficient

POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's first space lab module in good condition

Takeoff For Tiangong

Snafu as China space launch set to US patriotic song

Civilians given chance to reach for the stars

POLITICAL ECONOMY
8.5% carbon cut needed by 2020 for Copenhagen goal: study

Expect a tough round of climate talks in Durban: S.Africa

Tuvalu grapples with drought

Insoluble dust particles can form cloud droplets affecting global and regional climates


.

The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2011 - Space Media Network. AFP and UPI Wire Stories are copyright Agence France-Presse and United Press International. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement