Even the aerospace media was less than overjoyed. Reports speculated at the supposedly high level of Russian technology in Shenzhou, and wondered if the lack of facts published about Shenzhou was concealing a lack of technological sophistication. We have since learned that Shenzhou is not really an exact clone of Russia�s Soyuz spacecraft, but aerospace professionals continue to bemoan China�s lack of substantial discussions on its hardware.

This rather unenthusiastic response could temper enthusiasm for the program under any conditions, but the high costs of Shenzhou would make the program seem even more difficult to justify. Furthermore, a second test mission is likely to gain even less of a response than Shenzhou�s debut. The existence of the vehicle is no longer a surprise, and the novelty of a first flight has also been lost. These factors will seriously reduce the newsworthiness of any further missions, until a human crew actually flies.

It seems unlikely that China will want to abandon the Shenzhou program, but its funding will probably not be as high as its managers would wish. Money will trickle through, and when enough has been accumulated for subsequent missions, another Long March 2F rocket will lift off. Exactly how long this will take is unclear.

Chinese scientists and engineers have been surprisingly vocal in recent months, making proclamations about ambitious plans for everything from missions to the moon to advanced launch systems. Some analysts have placed great emphasis on statements from Chinese space program officials in the past, expecting that anything they said was approved by the central government. The same beliefs were applied to statements published in media outlets linked to the state. Our experiences with Shenzhou suggest otherwise. It seems likely that program managers are hoping to stir up more enthusiasm for their space program by speaking out, with the expectation that funding will follow as interest is boosted. These statements have generated little credibility in the aerospace press, and have almost been ignored by the general media. Nobody really expects China to achieve these goals in the short term, as they are even beyond the capacity of NASA at the present. If the desperate hype campaign continues, it will suggest that funding problems are serious.

A Shenzhou launch could appear in the next few days, the next month, or even next year. But China will need to launch reasonably soon if it wants to maintain a coherent program. The longer a project is delayed, the more it will cost in total. A sleeping space program will also tempt skilled personnel to leave, and China will face the daunting prospect of rebuilding its knowledge base.

Despite its size and strength, China is discovering that human spaceflight is still an enormously complex and costly activity. Similar projects to develop indigenous spacecraft in Europe and Japan have been postponed. Is China really prepared to continue its Shenzhou program in the years ahead?

Back To Part One

Morris Jones is a Sydney, Australia-based consultant and journalist. He can be contacted at morrisjonesNOSPAMhotmail.com. Replace NOSPAM with @ to send email.

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