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Turkish campaign against Kurds faces many pitfalls

by Staff Writers
Istanbul (AFP) Oct 19, 2007
Turkish troops face many risks if they cross into northern Iraq to chase Kurdish rebels, including renewed attacks on their own side of the border, Turkish experts said Friday.

The risk of a cross-border incursion has grown since the Turkish parliament this week approved a one-year authorisation for the military to cross into Iraq to attack Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) bases.

But veterans of previous campaigns against the PKK and other experts say the rebels are likely to just melt into the background of the mountain terrain and wait for a chance to hit back at their attackers.

The Turkish military estimates there are about 3,500 PKK fighters in mountain bases in northern Iraq, from where they plan and launch strikes on Turkish security forces across the border.

The bases run from the Turkish border to the Iranian frontier. The rebel headquarters is believed to be on Mount Qandil, near to Iran.

The PKK has only lightweight anti-aircraft weapons and some ground-to-air missiles, said retired general Haldun Solmazturk, a veteran of Turkish attacks on the rebel bases in 1995 and 1997.

"In the past they did not display any strong resistance and I don't expect them today to display any stronger resistance than they did in the past," the general told AFP.

"There may be some long distance fighting, from long range, just to disturb the Turkish units, but I do not reasonably expect any credible resistance," added Solmazturk.

"Mainly they will vanish, and they can because the nature of the terrain allows them to vanish, to hide or to move away from where they are now in northern Iraq. They can even easily get lost among the local people."

Sedat Laciner, head of the International Strategic Research Organisation (USAK), said there was a risk that the rebels could draw Turkish troops deep into Iraqi territory which could extend the conflict to the general Kurdish population.

"When the army attacks, the PKK will try to escape into into the interior and try to lead, through provocations, the Turkish armed forces," said Laciner, who warned against any action that could draw in Iraqi Kurds.

The autonomous Kurdish government in northern Iraq has a force of about 100,000 men, known as the Peshmergas, and 2,000 armoured vehicles. On Friday the government stressed its determination to fight off any attack on its territory.

Kurdish regional president Massoud Barzani declared: "We frankly say to all parties: if they attack the region or Kurdistan experiment under whatever pretext, we will be completely ready to defend our democratic experiment and the dignity of our people and the sanctity of our homeland."

But Solmazturk said that despite its statements, the government would "understand and tolerate small scale short duration surgical type of military operations."

The other main fear is that Kurdish rebels could set off reprisal attacks in Turkish territory.

In case of an attack in northern Iraq, "Kurdish society wil intensify the rebellion in all areas," a PKK leader, Bahoz Erdal, said in an interview with the pro-Kurdish Firat News Murat Karayilan news agency.

He said there could be attacks on Turkey's oil pipelines.

Erdal has already threatened to take on targets within the Justice and Development party of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accusing him of being the head of a "war government".

Turkish police said Thursday that they had prevented a PKK-inspired attack in the western city of Izmir, in reaction to the parliamentary vote the previous day.

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Pentagon announces Iraq deployments
Washington (AFP) Oct 19, 2007
Seven army national guard brigades with 18,000 troops were alerted Friday to prepare for deployment to Iraq as replacement forces beginning next August, a Pentagon spokesman said.







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