The report concludes the market for standards-based broadband satellite solutions has become somewhat more positive than in early 2003. A range of DVB-RCS equipment is available today, and standards-based compliance is increasingly a requisite in many RFPs distributed to the VSAT community.

The increasing demand for DVB-RCS platforms also led two of the largest VSAT vendors (Gilat and ViaSat) to offer the standard as an option for their platforms. With over 16,000 DVB-RCS sites deployed as of late 2004, it is clear that DVB-RCS based platforms are no longer a niche in the broader broadband satellite landscape.

DOCSIS over satellite deployment has also started through high profile contracts in the Middle East and North America. WildBlue appears ready for launch in 2005 with the promise of targeting 25+ million households in the U.S. that have no access to cable modem or DSL service.

However while the market is brighter, serious questions remain regarding the precise competitiveness and growth potential for standards-based platforms. Prices are still considered to be too high, interoperability and plug-and-play functionality between vendors is not yet reality, and competition with successful proprietary platforms is ever increasing.

"NSR does see the long term benefits of a bi-directional satellite standard; i.e. lower costs through multiple vendors, interoperability, and customer choice," according to Christopher Baugh, President of Northern Sky Research and author of the report.

"Standards will likely generate more widespread acceptance once costs are significantly reduced, a large order for standards-based equipment is placed, standards are able to improve bandwidth efficiency, or a large player such as WildBlue builds a successful large-scale business based on a standards-based platform.

"It does appear that at least 2 of these market developments may actually transpire over the next 12-18 months; however, if none transpire, the standards-based VSAT market will only post marginal gains for the foreseeable future," states Baugh.

Based on extensive analysis and modeling, NSR expects that DVB-RCS solutions will continue to experience incremental growth over the next 4-5 years. This growth will be driven by an accelerated standardization and testing process, cost reductions, the expected inclusion of DVB-S2 and broader market acceptance for standards.

However, while standards-based solutions will experience increasing shares of the overall market, proprietary platforms will still represent the majority of deployed sites by 2008.

"DVB-RCS and DOCSIS: 2nd Edition: Reassessing the Viability of Satellite Standards" is a multi-client report now available from Northern Sky Research.

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