The formal reason was the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers, first by the Hamas Islamic resistance movement and several weeks later by the Shiite Hezbollah movement of Lebanon.

But the root cause of the current aggravation is the unresolved Arab-Israeli conflict, notably the absence of positive changes in Palestinian-Israeli and Syrian-Israeli relations.

It would be reasonable to assume that solidarity with Hamas was one of the main reasons for the actions of Hezbollah, whose leader, Sheikh Nasrallah, has said: "We cannot tolerate the Arab world's quiet acquiescence to the cold-blooded extermination of Palestinians."

Hezbollah's actions echoed the general mood in Arab countries.

Israel responded to the kidnappings immediately and, as many experts say, too harshly. Nevertheless, the exaggerated Israeli response to the actions of Palestinian and Lebanese militants was logical and predictable.

The new Israeli government needed to show resolve. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert wanted to act as a strong political leader in a complicated domestic political situation where he is under pressure from different political forces. And Israeli generals wanted to give the harshest possible response to the militants' actions, which tarnished the image of the Israeli Defense Forces (Tzahal).

However, the actions of the Israeli leadership seem hasty and its decisions unjustified. The military operation in Gaza and Lebanon is hitting not so much the true culprits, but innocent civilians. Therefore, it is unlikely to succeed.

The Israeli strikes have seriously weakened the militants, but they will survive. The history of the Arab-Israeli confrontation shows that the militants will soon rebuild their infrastructure and forces. The authority of Hamas and Hezbollah radicals will grow, and they will again proclaim victory over Israel, whatever the outcome of their clash.

Thus far, the conflict has been escalating. Israel wants to secure the release of its soldiers and destroy "the terror infrastructure" in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon. But what did Hamas and Hezbollah want when they kidnapped the Israeli soldiers? Did they really want freedom for their comrades in Israeli jails, as they claimed?

Israel believes that Hamas and Hezbollah acted on the instructions of Syria and Iran, which is possible.

Tehran, pressured by the international community to stop its nuclear fuel program, could have used its influence on Palestinian and Lebanese extremists to get them to step up fighting in Gaza and Lebanon in order to divert the world's attention from Iran. But it miscalculated, because increased attention on the Middle East has not stopped the world from considering Iran's nuclear projects. Israel's conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah is a minor problem compared to the danger of Iran getting access to nuclear weapons technologies.

Therefore neither Tehran nor Damascus is likely to benefit from the current complication.

The Syrian leadership most certainly knows that offering assistance to extremists and terrorists, not to mention using them to pressure Israel, will have an adverse result. It will only force Israel to use military force and, given the military weakness of Syria, undermine the authority of the ruling regime and strengthen and encourage the opposition.

Damascus should also remember that Islamic extremists, irrespective of their nationality, consider the Syrian regime a short-term fellow traveler, a government that is ultimately a political and ideological adversary in the struggle for "a true Islamic state."

If Syria continues supporting extremists, the world will regard it negatively, further complicating the country's standing abroad. Damascus should know that nobody will come to its aid if Israel turns against it, not even its "strategic ally" Iran or its "Arab brothers."

So there is little probability of an all-out war between Israel and Syria, since neither side wants to endanger one of the safest parts of their borders.

But this does not simplify the situation, which is rapidly moving towards a dead-end in the Palestinian territories. Israel should either step up the operation or start talking with Hamas, because Mahmoud Abbas, the head of the Palestinian National Authority, cannot control the situation. Beginning direct talks with Hamas, however, would amount to an admission of defeat, because Israel has said categorically that it will never talk with terrorists.

International mediators such as Egypt could help resolve the conflict. Although Israel has rejected their assistance, talks may still be held behind closed doors to work out the conditions of a compromise for resolving the conflict.

Lebanon suggests removing the Hezbollah units from the border with Israel, which should respond by halting strikes on infrastructure targets. This would be difficult to achieve, especially because the Israeli operation in Lebanon could seriously aggravate the political situation there. Hezbollah, even if seriously weakened by the Israeli operation, would not disband its militant group. As a result, Lebanon could be pushed into a civil war with unpredictable consequences.

A ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon is the main objective, and it is a very difficult one. The warring sides' leaders should muster the courage to bury the hatchet for the benefit of their people.

The long history of the Arab-Israeli confrontation shows that there is no military solution to it. Fighting, which costs lives and causes material and moral damage, can only further embitter Arabs and Jews and play into the hands of extremists on both sides. Dialogue, not war and unilateral decisions, is the only solution.

Valentin Yurchenko is an expert at the Institute of the Middle East. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.

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