During his surprise visit to Kyrgyzstan, Rumsfeld convinced the Bishkek authorities to keep the U.S. base there for an indefinite period. However, Kyrgyz Defense Minister Ismail Isakov's phrase at the pair's joint press conference that "the Manas base will remain as long as necessary, depending on the situation in Afghanistan," can be interpreted in different ways.

We have heard such statements before. Rumsfeld's visit was an answer to the call from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization -- comprising Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan -- for the counter-terrorist coalition in Afghanistan (primarily the United States) to set a timeframe to withdraw military bases from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

The SCO also broadly hinted that the presence of the American task group in the region could be seen as "unnecessary" in view of Washington's apparent successes in Afghanistan. This opinion was supported by Uzbekistan and the new administration in Kyrgyzstan, the two states that host the bases. Washington clearly interpreted it as an invitation to leave.

If the Americans have to leave Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan it will be a heavy blow for Rumsfeld's plan of having a worldwide skeleton network of "lilypad" bases, which he needs to control Central Asia.

The Pentagon chief said at the beginning of his visit to Central Asia that losing access to key air force bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan would not affect U.S. military operations in Afghanistan. Thus, it appears, the Pentagon has enough options to cover the loss of any military base in the region. As Rumsfeld told journalists, the United States is confident because it always plans for the future.

It does not matter to the SCO whether the United States finds other bases in other regions: It wants to know why there should be American bases in Central Asia.

Let's see how these bases operate, provided they are part of the Afghan operation. If Rumsfeld fails to convince Tajikistan to allow American planes to overfly its territory on the way from the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan, this will effectively nullify the importance of the base for counter-terrorism operations. Uzbekistan or China might allow American planes to use their airspace, but the air corridor to Manas belongs to Russia and Kazakhstan, both of which are SCO members.

Thus, Rumsfeld can speak about the bilateral base agreements as much as he wants, but the six-state SCO has solid reasons to demand to know the reasons for the U.S. base in Kyrgyzstan.

These reasons may or may not meet the interests of countries in the region. On March 4, the government of Kyrgyzstan refused, after consulting its SCO partners, to allow Washington to use the Manas base for reconnaissance flights by AWACS planes looking into China and other countries in the region.

The final declaration of the recent SCO summit called on the counter-terrorist coalition "to set a timetable for ending the temporary use of the said infrastructure facilities and the deployment of their military groups in the SCO member states." This is a very polite invitation to the United States to provide solid reasons and a timetable for withdrawal and guaranteed rules of conduct for its troops in SCO states, which means that Rumsfeld's counterattack was not such a big success after all.

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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