Thus, China's engines for combat aircraft are still below their Western and Russian counterparts in economic fuel consumption and overhaul period. In order to close the gap, China will have to make considerable investments, primarily to modernize its industry. China's airlift force is also weak. It does not have enough medium and heavy military transport aircraft.

The development of the navy in China is impeded not only by its rather backward industry but also by the fleet's second-rate role in its military potential. As distinct from the majority of industrially advanced countries, China's fleet is not an independent branch but part of its People's Liberation Army -- PLA.

This subordinate position, that is, orientation to army tasks, limits the Chinese fleet to coastal missions. It primarily operates in territorial waters and a 200-mile economic zone.

For actions in the open sea, China has a very limited number of multi-purpose nuclear-powered submarines and shore-based Xian H-6 -- Tupolev Tu-16 licensed copy -- missile-carrier aircraft.

But this situation is changing, and the People's Liberation Army's navy is expected to receive its first aircraft-carriers in the coming decade. Escorted by an adequate number of frigates or destroyers, they will be able to operate in far-away waters.

As other nuclear powers, China's strategy is largely based on the nuclear deterrent. At present, it is equipping its nuclear forces with new DF-31A missiles, which can destroy targets at a distance of 11,000 km -- 6,600 miles. It also is introducing into its fleet nuclear-powered missile carriers of the 094 type, which are harder to detect than their predecessors -- 092-type submarines -- and equipped with JL-2 missiles capable of hitting targets on other continents.

Experts believe that all in all, China now has 300 to 400 nuclear charges. This amount is much below the Russian or U.S. potentials, but the situation is gradually changing.

On the whole, China's armed forces are capable of carrying out any regional missions, but in strategic potentials -- that is, in nuclear deterrent, and ability to transfer troops over considerable distances -- they are lagging behind even their Russian counterpart, which is not at its prime at the moment, to say nothing of the United States. This situation is most likely to remain the same in the next 10 to 15 years. After all, China is not going to have a tough military confrontation with anyone.

(Ilya Kramnik is a military commentator for the RIA Novosti news agency. This article is reprinted by permission of the RIA Novosti news agency. The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of the RIA Novosti news agency.)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

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