According to new strategic research from Frost & Sullivan, U.S. Narrowband PCS Markets, 1997 was the first year that N-PCS services were commercially available on a widespread basis. By the year's end, revenues from N-PCS services reached approximately $48 million. The market is expected to expand quickly from 1998-2000 as a number of networks are turned on and expand their footprints. In 2000, the revenues are expected to reach almost $2.5 billion. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the forecast period is projected to be 65 percent.

N-PCS has the potential to rescue the entire paging industry from the recent downward spiral that has affected it. "By 2004, fully half of all paging subscribers could be using N-PCS for their messaging needs," says Frost & Sullivan's Telecommunications Industry Manager Brian Cotton, Ph.D. "Through a set of strategies that address coverage, pricing, and end-user education issues, the industry can fulfill its promise as the next generation of advanced paging and messaging services."

Given the market has only just emerged, there are no clear cut leaders in neither the voice paging nor the data messaging segment. Mobile Telecommunications (Mtel) has taken the early lead in the data messaging segment. Competition will shape up in the next two years. Some of the participants have acquired more spectrum than others. Spectrum, the raw material of the wireless business, allows companies who posses it to gain a competitive advantage over those who don't.

"The early leader in the voice paging segment appears to be Conxus. Conxus, however has a formidable competitor in PageNet, the nation's largest paging operator. PageNet has been a dominant force in the one-way paging market, which gives it an established customer base and brand name, as well as a nationwide presence and ownership of large amounts of spectrum," says Frost & Sullivan's Telecommunications Industry Analyst Subodh Karnad. "All of these assets will be its major competitive strengths in the voice paging market."

U.S. Narrowband PCS Markets provides the first exhaustive analysis of N-PCS, offering important market insights for industry participants as well as potential entrants and investors. By examining the market threats drivers and restraints, key competitive issues, and industry challenges, this study provides users with an essential guide to the new generation of paging products.

"Currently, the barriers to market entry are relatively high, and many smaller players may be acquired. Moreover, because of the high barriers, costs and technical complexity, some of the companies may not even get their services to market," says Cotton.

This Telecommunications Industry research has integrated the Market Engineering consulting philosophy into the entire research process. Critical phases of this research included: Identification of industry challenges, market engineering measurements, strategic recommendations, planning and market monitoring. All of the vital elements of this system help the market participants navigate successfully through the telecommunications market.

The technologies reviewed include, land mobile radio (LMR), personal communications services (PCS), mobile satellite services (MSS), paging, narrowband PCS (N-PCS), ReFLEX, InFlexion, pACT, code division multiple access (CDMA), time division multiple access(TDMA), global system for mobile communications (GSM), POCSAG, FLEX, SMR, ESMR, and cellular services.

Market participants include: AirTouch Paging, American Paging, Inc., Ameritech Cellular & Paging Services, Inc., Arch Communications Group, Inc., Benbow PCS Ventures, Inc., CONXUS Communications, Inc., Insta-Check Systems, Inc., MobileComm, Inc., Mtel, PageMart Wireless, Inc., Paging Network, Inc., ARDIS, AT&T Wireless Services, Inc., Bell Atlantic Paging, Inc., Central Paging Services, CUE Paging Corporation, Metrocall, Inc., Nationwide Paging, Inc., Network Services L.L.C., Paging Partners Corporation, Preferred Networks, Inc., Priority Communications, Inc., ProNet, Inc., SourceOne Wireless, Inc., Southern Net Association of Paging, Teletouch Communications, Inc., TSR Paging, Inc., Ericsson, Inc., Everon America, Glenayre Technologies, Inc., Global Access Pagers, Inc. , INTEK Corporation, Maxon America, Inc. ,Motorola, Inc., NEC America, Inc., GoComm, Panasonic Communications & Systems, Samsung Telecommunications America, Inc., Sony Corporation of America, Uniden America Corporation, Wireless Access, Inc., and Zetron, Inc.

Frost & Sullivan

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