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Miracle Needed To Avert India-Pakistan Showdown: Analysts
Islamabad (AFP) Dec 28, 2001 Only a "diplomatic miracle" can avert looming war between Pakistan and India, analysts said Friday as the two nuclear-armed rivals remained locked in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation on the border. "Any tactical or defensive move by one side may be perceived as a strategic threat by the other and trigger an explosion," said noted defence analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi. "It is a very, very dangerous standoff. Guns may start roaring any time unless the world powers and the United Nations use their good offices to perform a diplomatic miracle by defusing tension," Rizvi said. "The world powers should convince India that Pakistan is already taking measures to restrain the militant Islamic groups and therefore a dialogue on the contentious issues will be desirable." As both armies mounted build-ups along the border, India raised the stakes Thursday by imposing diplomatic and aviation sanctions against Pakistan, which swiftly ordered a matching response. The tit-for-tat measures included banning each other's airlines from their skies, slashing the strength of embassies in New Delhi and Islamabad by half and restricting the movement of diplomats and staff within the capitals. The crisis erupted after the December 13 terrorist attack on the Indian parliament which killed 14 people, including the five attackers. New Delhi blamed the attack on two Pakistan-based militant groups Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba and demanded that Islamabad shut down the outfits and arrest their leaders. Pakistan has detained Jaish leader Maulana Mazood Azhar, frozen Lashkar's assets, and offered to cooperate if India provides concrete evidence through a joint probe into the incident. India has rejected the moves as "cosmetic." "A military showdown looks inevitable," said independent defence analyst and commentator M.A. Niazi. "India is bent upon it and it is going to be a showdown. Soon Pakistan will have to choose between the paths of over-caution and restraint and that of retaliation." Niazi said he thought India would take some military action, in the form of missile strikes across the disputed border in Kashmir, which would make it difficult for Pakistan to formulate a response. "If India raids across the Line of Control in Kashmir but does not occupy territory it would put Pakistan in an awkward position," he said. India is attempting to push Pakistan into a situation where it must publicly take action against alleged terrorist organizations operating from Pakistan and the portion of Kashmir it controls, he said. "The Indians are adamant that Pakistan proceed against alleged terrorists in full view of the world and that it should also be seen as repenting its support for the freedom movement in Indian-occupied Kashmir."
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