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TRADE WARS
Japan factory output jumps on demand rush before tax hike
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) Feb 28, 2014


China manufacturing growth slows to 8-month low: govt
Beijing (AFP) March 01, 2014 - China's manufacturing growth fell to an eight-month low in February, government figures showed on Saturday, reflecting further weakening in the world's second-largest economy but also the effect of a major holiday.

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) tumbled to 50.2, the National Bureau of Statistics reported on its website, in the third straight drop from 50.5 in January, 51.0 in December and 51.4 in November.

A figure over 50 indicates expansion while one below shows contraction.

This marked China's 17th consecutive month of manufacturing growth but at a slowing rate -- the lowest since a June reading of 50.1.

China's economic growth has weakened in recent years, hitting 7.7 percent in 2013, the lowest level since 1999. Analysts expect a further drop to 7.5 percent this year.

The lowered forecast comes as Beijing has pledged to reform the country's growth model so that consumers and other private actors play a more significant role, rather than massive and often wasteful state investment.

Whereas in the past authorities have reacted quickly to inject cash to stimulate a slowing economy, recently they have remained tight-fisted instead.

Two liquidity crunches occurred last year in part because officials sought to impose stricter discipline over banks amid burgeoning debt levels.

But the recent Lunar New Year, China's most important holiday, may also have dampened results, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists Ting Lu and Xiaojia Zhi said in a research note.

"We believe the drop was mainly impacted by the Lunar New Year holiday," they wrote, adding that they expected a bounce back up to 50.5 in March.

"Markets will likely respond negatively to the reading but the impact could be limited. Policies are unlikely to be impacted by these distorted PMI readings," they said.

In another closely watched indicator of Chinese manufacturing, British banking giant HSBC said last week its preliminary PMI reading for February dropped to a seven-month low, to 48.3, down from a final figure for January of 49.5.

HSBC is set to release its final PMI reading for February on Monday.

Japan's industrial output grew at its fastest rate in more than two years in January as factories cranked out goods ahead of a sales tax hike, adding momentum to the Abenomics experiment, data showed Friday.

In a further sign that once-stubborn deflation is starting to ease, prices also continued their upward trajectory, although this was mostly driven by higher fuel costs.

Shoppers are splashing out on pricey goods such as cars to beat the rise in sales tax to 8.0 percent from the current 5.0 percent in April, prompting companies to ramp up production.

January factory output soared 4.0 percent on-month, chalking up the fastest growth since the 4.2 percent rise in June 2011 when production was recovering from earthquake and tsunami damage.

Consumer inflation rose year-on-year for the eighth straight month while unemployment was stable at 3.7 percent with household spending climbing 1.1 percent on-year.

"Today's data confirm that the economy is picking up speed ahead of the consumption tax hike," Capital Economics economist Marcel Thieliant said in a note.

Masahiko Hashimoto, economist at Daiwa Institute of Research, also said "the economy as a whole is faring well".

Industrial production was strong largely thanks to rush demand for big ticket items whose prices have a big impact on household finances, he said.

But industries with less impact, such as machinery and chemicals, also showed growth, Hashimoto noted.

"It is inevitable that personal consumption will dip (after the April tax hike) but I do not think the economy will worsen rapidly from there," he said.

"Corporate earnings are good... Exports are likely to grow further, leading to higher spending on plants and equipment," which will eventually result in higher earnings for households, he said.

Some economists have warned the tax hike could dampen a budding recovery in the long-lumbering economy.

A survey by the industry ministry showed manufacturing companies plan to slash their production by 3.2 percent in March after raising it by 1.3 percent in February.

Production and inflation figures are closely watched for the success of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's pro-spending policy blitz, dubbed "Abenomics".

He has put conquering deflation and stoking growth in the world's third-largest economy at the top of his agenda, meshing huge stimulus spending with aggressive monetary easing by the central bank.

The Bank of Japan has a 2.0 percent inflation target as Tokyo battles to reverse years of falling prices.

Data Friday showed core consumer prices, stripping out volatile fresh food prices, climbed 1.3 percent, the same rate as in December, which was the sharpest rise in more five years.

The upbeat headline was tempered by the fact that prices were still largely driven up by higher fuel bills.

Electricity prices jumped 8.5 percent and gasoline prices soared 6.5 percent while television set prices rose 3.7 percent.

Japan's energy costs soared in the wake of the 2011 Fukushima atomic disaster, which forced the shutdown of the nation's nuclear reactors.

Since the accident, Japan has been importing fossil fuels to plug the energy gap, a pricey option that has become even more expensive as the yen sharply weakened in the wake of the Bank of Japan's unprecedented monetary easing.

Hashimoto of Daiwa said prices of many other products rose.

"Durable goods prices had been stubbornly low despite higher manufacturing costs. A good economy is now enabling companies to pass on pushed-up costs on product prices," he said.

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