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Iran NIE Hurts BMD Say Some Analysts
Washington (UPI) Dec 7, 2007 The stunning U.S. National Intelligence Estimate that Iran is not making nuclear weapons will most likely deal a death blow to the Bush administration's already-beleaguered plans to build an anti-ballistic missile base in Poland, armed with 10 interceptors to guard against a future Iranian nuclear ballistic missile attack against Western Europe or the United States. As we noted in this column last week, the administration's plans to build the base were already reeling from two giant blows over the past month. First Rep. Ellen Tauscher, D-Calif., the chair of the House Strategic Forces Subcommittee of the Armed Services Committee, came out publicly with a flat statement that she would not approve the funding the administration needed to build the base. Then, the pro-American Polish government of Jaroslaw Kaczynski was replaced by a new one led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk that has lost no time in seeking to improve relations with Russia. Within three days of Tusk taking office, his new defense minister, Bogdan Klich, told the Warsaw newspaper Dziennik in an interview published Nov. 19 that he was going to reassess the case for building the ABM base. His tone in the interview indicated he was already strongly skeptical of it. Without funding approved by the U.S. Congress or the permission of the government of Poland, it is obvious the base cannot be built there. The Bush administration, furthermore, has little more than a year left in office and it is confronted by weak standings in opinion polls and by both houses of Congress in the hands of the opposition Democrats. Up to now, the Democrats have been remarkably cooperative, constructive and bipartisan on supporting most existing BMD programs. But they were always much more skeptical about the Polish base plan. And Tauscher's comments, furthermore, were a striking strengthening of opposition on that issue. Initially Democratic leaders in the House, which approves defense appropriations, had sought to reduce plans for the base rather than eliminate them entirely. Now, the new NIE looks certain to drive the final nail into the coffin of the BMD base proposal. President Bush has already said he does not accept the NIE assessment, which, it should be noted, was made not by any Iranian or intelligence veterans, but by diplomats and arms control professionals. However, the estimate will still certainly strengthen U.S. domestic political opposition to building the base and give Tauscher, her close ally House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, another California Democrat, and other Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill the political cover they need to scrap the plan. Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, wrote Thursday, "The NIE has pulled the rug out from under Israel's feet and caused Israel to fail on both counts. The likelihood of U.S.-Iran diplomacy has grown significantly while Israel appears increasingly alone in the world, toeing a hawkish and excessive line on Iran." Parsi is certainly correct that the NIE marks a striking victory for the relative doves in the Bush administration led by Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who are not eager for a conflict that could rapidly escalate into war with Iran while the U.S. armed forces are still tied down, exhausted and over-stretched in neighboring Iraq. However, if the NIE assessment should prove to be misplaced, it is not only Israel that would be at risk. The express purpose of deploying the interceptors in Poland with a neighboring advanced radar array based next door in the Czech Republic was to put them where they would have the best chance of intercepting some future Iranian ICBM that might be launched to incinerate New York, Washington, or some other American city, most likely on the Eastern Seaboard. By undermining the case for the Polish-based interceptors, the NIE also torpedoed what might prove to have been the best chance to intercept such weapons in the future, should they ever be launched against the United States. Community Email This Article Comment On This Article Related Links Learn about missile defense at SpaceWar.com Learn about nuclear weapons doctrine and defense at SpaceWar.com All about missiles at SpaceWar.com Learn about the Superpowers of the 21st Century at SpaceWar.com
United Arab Emirates - PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3 Missile System
Washington DC (SPX) Dec 07, 2007The Defense Security Cooperation Agency notified Congress of a possible Foreign Military Sale to the United Arab Emirates of the PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3 Missile System as well as associated equipment and services. The total value, if all options are exercised, could be as high as $9 billion. |
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