The study conducted by Oxford Economics for the US Travel Association found double-digit declines in plans to travel to any of the five US states on the Gulf of Mexico -- Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Texas -- and warned the slump in tourism could last for years and be widely felt.

"Tourism is one of the top economic drivers of the Gulf region. Visitors to the Gulf Coast spent more than 34 billion dollars in 2008" and sustained 400,000 jobs, it said.

But since an explosion on the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon rig sent it sinking to the bottom of the Gulf off Louisiana, where it has been spewing crude into the sea almost non-stop ever since, "tourists have shifted away from the entire region in significant numbers," the study said.

And although a cap on the well appears to have staunched the flow of oil into the sea, the study warned that tourist numbers would not return to pre-crisis levels in the near future.

"A review of disasters affecting tourism destinations reveals that the impact endures beyond the resolution of the crisis itself due to brand damage and ongoing traveler misperceptions," the study said.

To estimate when tourist spending and numbers would return to pre-spill levels, the study looked at hurricanes, other oil spills and health crises.

In the case of Hurricane Katrina, it was more than three years before visitor spending in New Orleans returned to pre-storm levels, and after the Exxon Valdez oil spill off Alaska, tourist spending remained below the pre-spill number for more than two years.

But the BP spill in the Gulf was not directly comparable with other oil disasters, said the study.

"The immense scale of the current oil slick implies that the potential damage is larger, and the proximity to unique fishing activity and tourism hotspots also places the event apart from previous events," it said.

earlier related report
US to reopen one third of Gulf closed after oil spill
New Orleans, Louisiana (AFP) July 22, 2010 - The United States is reopening one third of the Gulf of Mexico fishing waters closed in the wake of the BP oil spill, officials said Thursday.

"Since mid-June, NOAA data have shown no oil in the area, and United States Coast Guard observers flying over the area in last 30 days have also not observed any oil," said a statement by the US government joint oil spill response center.

"Additionally, trajectory models show the area is at a low risk for future exposure to oil, and fish caught in the area and tested by NOAA experts have shown no signs of contamination."

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration order applies to commercial and recreational fishing in 26,388square miles(68,344 square kilometers) of Gulf waters, or about one-third of the area that was initially closed.

Prior to Thursday's announcement, a total of 83,927 square miles (217,500 square kilometers) of Gulf of Mexico federal waters were closed to commercial and recreational fishing, or about a third of all of the Gulf of Mexico federal waters.

At its closest point, the reopened waters are about 190 miles (306 kilometers) southeast of the BP wellhead, which began leaking crude after a BP-leased Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded and sank in April.

The well was capped last week, stopping the flow into the Gulf for the first time in nearly three months.

The government said the majority of the fishing would take place along waters off west Florida, some 220 miles (354 kilometers) from the leak site.

"We are confident that seafood caught in this area is, and will continue to be, free from contamination," saidJane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.

"NOAA is working to protect public safety while minimizing harm to the fishing industry."

Government testers applied "sensory and chemical testing" to samples of grouper, snapper, tuna and mahi mahi from the area where the heaviest fishing would take place.

Those tests "showed no detectable oil or dispersant odors or flavors, and the results of chemical analysis were well below the levels of concern," the statement said.

"We know it is important to get people back to fishing quickly -- this industry is the backbone of the Gulf region economy," said Food and Drug Administration commissioner Margaret Hamburg.

"At the same time, we need the American public to be confident in the seafood coming from the Gulf, and the testing that has been done as part of the agreed upon protocols has not indicated any level of concern."

NOAA testing of seafood from the area would continue after the waters were reopened, officials said.

In addition, NOAA researchers sampled water in the area to be reopened and "no surface sheens were observed and no unusual readings potentially indicative of oil were obtained during these activities," it said.

The area was initially closed over fears that oil could enter the loop current and make its way out of the Gulf, around the southern tip of Florida and northward along the Atlantic Ocean on the US east coast.

"That fear, however, never materialized, and NOAA revisited its earlier assumptions, reaching the conclusion that these waters no longer need to be closed," the statement said.

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