Future aviation study shows path to near zero emissions by 2070

Future aviation study shows path to near zero emissions by 2070
by Robert Schreiber
Berlin, Germany (SPX) Sep 22, 2025

The German Aerospace Center (DLR) has released its DEvelopment Pathways for Aviation up to 2070 (DEPA 2070) study, presenting a 50-year outlook on how global aviation could expand while sharply reducing carbon emissions. Despite traffic levels projected to double by 2070, significant carbon dioxide cuts are feasible.

The conservative scenario suggests emissions per 100 passenger kilometers could fall by 23 percent, while a progressive scenario projects up to 89 percent reductions with early adoption of hydrogen and battery-electric propulsion. Both rely heavily on sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) to deliver climate-compatible operations by the 2030s.

"Aviation will remain a key economic driver in the long term, with its growth set to continue," said Markus Fischer, DLR Divisional Board Member for Aeronautics. "The decisive factor is that we succeed in reconciling climate protection with growth. The scenarios examined in DEPA 2070 show that carbon-neutral air transport is possible if we set the correct course today and systematically advance new technologies."

The project modeled two scenarios across all aircraft classes, from regional to long-haul. The conservative case assumes incremental advances, while the progressive case incorporates faster rollouts of zero-emission aircraft. Population growth, energy costs and geopolitical shifts were also factored in, building on insights from the earlier DEPA 2050 study.

Economic and social effects were also assessed. Aviation's global added value could double from 1.1 trillion to 2.2 trillion euros by 2070, with jobs rising from 17 million to more than 37 million. New mobility solutions, including hybrid-electric short-haul aircraft and supersonic links, could significantly reduce travel times, particularly on intra-European routes.

The study highlights rapidly increasing demand for new aircraft, driven by both rising traffic and fleet renewals. SAFs dominate the conservative pathway, while liquid hydrogen plays the central role in the progressive option. Battery-electric and hybrid-electric aircraft, though range-limited, are expected to expand their role, especially for short-haul business and private travel.

Airports and infrastructure will face mounting pressures to adapt, requiring new energy distribution systems for hydrogen, electricity and SAFs. DLR stresses the importance of coordinated action between policymakers, industry and stakeholders to ensure investment certainty and a smooth transition.

"DEPA 2070 provides the first comprehensive picture of possible future pathways for aviation," noted study leader Alexandra Leipold. "Through this study, we're creating a robust foundation for political decision-making, investment and research. The major challenge now is to actively follow through on these scenarios and develop viable solutions together."