The move, according to the documents Loral filed with the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission (SEC), could result in China canceling the sale of the satellite, costing Loral millions and seriously hampering the company's ability to sell communications satellites to the east.

The filing documents painted a grim prospect if the company is ultimately unable to get permission to complete the transaction. That would mean, according to the company, repayment of the satellite's $124 million construction costs plus a penalty of as much as $12 million more.

Loral could recoup some of that by refurbishing the standardized satellite bus for another customer, but such a resale is not certain and could take months for an agreement to be crafted. Loral told the Wall Street Journal that it had hopes that ultimately the pending federal review of the export will find that they had complied with the new provisions of the act, which took effect March 15th.

But the prospect that this will pass muster with the State Department is cloudy at best- and the recent track record hints that it won't be easy in the current geopolitical and congressional climate. Hughes found itself unable to win approval for the sale of an HS 601 satellite last month as a result of the new restrictions on technology transfer.

That deal buster cost Hughes nearly half a billion in sales, plus the cost of the launch service. But more serious for the U.S. communications satellite industry was the prospect that any export of a communications bird to China would be held up this spring, which many in the industry predict would cripple the competitiveness of the three largest U.S. satellite builders - Loral, Hughes, and Lockheed Martin.

Is there any silver lining in this dark cloud for U.S. space business? Some suggest that if capacity weren't a problem, the commercial launch service providers in the U.S. might reap some benefit by stepping into the "void" left by any future banning, in essence, of the Long March as a commercial carrier of American satellites.

But capacity IS a problem, as is space access overall, and there is little likelihood that U.S. rocket builders such as Boeing (Delta III, Sea Launch) and Lockmart (Atlas III) capable of lifting the larger satellites could accommodate the payload makers during any Long March restriction that might stick this spring.

This entire issue is likely to explode again in Washington over the next three weeks when the Cox report, or a declassified variant, is to be released. A year-long investigation into the recent allegations of improper launch vehicle technology transfer by Hughes and Loral following 1995 and 1996 Long March launch failures, the report by the Select House Committee is likely to reveal at least some damaging facts to back up last summer's seemingly endless round of Congressional hearings and finger-pointing.

But sources on the Hill tell SpaceDaily that industry isn't alone on the hot seat- the administration will come in for lashes over some serious lapses in security and monitoring. We're told that not only Commerce but the DoD failed repeatedly to maintain the curtain of control over several U.S. satellites exported in 1996 and 1997.

Where will this process end? Said one wag in Washington last week: "No matter what happens, if we can't compete, others will. Did they (Congress) ever hear of a company called Aerospatiale ? Or how about one called Arianespace?"

Space Systems/Loral

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Satellite Launch To Boost DTH In India
Calcutta, India (SPX) Dec 28, 2005
The successful launch Thursday of India's heaviest satellite from spaceport of Kourou in French Guyana may have boosted the country's space research efforts to yet another level, but it has also lifted the spirits of at least three Direct-To-Home televisions broadcasters, one of which has been waiting for years to launch its services in India.