"The climate framework is the top long term issue," World Energy Council (WEC) Secretary General Christoph Frei told a UN conference on energy security.

"It's the most important driver for change," Frei added.

The WEC said executives and officials in 93 countries now regard future climate change policies as a "critical uncertainty" on a par with the more immediate economic and financial crises.

"Long term visibility is absolutely critical, without that energy industry is going to face high uncertainty. That adds to cost... and ends up on everyone's bill eventually," Frei said.

The WEC groups private and public sector in the oil, gas, power and renewable energy sectors in 93 countries.

International Energy Agency senior economist Trevor Morgan also raised concerns about the impact of predicted growth in energy demand patterns if the current mix of coal, oil, gas and renewables is maintained.

The IEA's reference scenario estimates that energy growth would raise greenhouse gas emissions to about 40 gigatonnes by 2030 against 28 this year.

That scenario assumes that current patterns of demand go unchecked by other regulation, such as new curbs on carbon emissions, emissions trading, taxes or shifts in energy markets.

"We don't think that this is going to happen and we hope that it's not going to happen," Morgan added.

The current path would lead to concentrations of about 1,000 parts per million (ppm) of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, according to the IEA economist.

Scientists on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) regard that as their worst case scenario, triggering an increase in warming of about six degrees Celsius by mid century.

"We're on a six degree (Celsius) increase path at the moment," Morgan explained.

"Unless there is a deal in Copenhagen or soon after... then demand is just going to continue to rise along the same path as in recent years."

The IEA, the energy-policy arm of the OECD of industrialised nations, has calculated a cut in emissions by just over half in 2030 to 450 ppm, still more than double the level environmental campaigners advocate.

But even that would require a 47 percent cut in demand for coal, a 15 percent cut in oil demand, as well as a 49 percent growth in demand for nuclear power and a 33 percent increase in renewables.

The energy industry traditionally takes a very long term view on investment decisions, especially for costly infrastructure such as power stations, refineries, or pipelines, to recover the cost over periods of decades.

Frei noted that climate change could even have a direct impact on those decisions, especially to locate nuclear power stations and oil refineries, which rely on steady water supplies.

"We know from the IPCC that climate change will hit through water availability," he explained.

The energy-water issue was brought up by executives quizzed in the WEC survey, and Frei said it would not even have been mentioned two years ago.

Hopes have been dashed in recent weeks that the December 7-18 UN climate change talks in Copenhagen would result in a binding agreement on cutting emissions.

Instead the 192 countries appear set to push for a political deal to prepare the way for a binding pact next year to follow on from the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

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