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Detente Over Fear Of Iran

Duncan Lennox, a missile expert with Jane's, told Radio Free Europe the Gabala radar would detect missiles fired from Iran quicker; however, it would be less suitable to guide interceptor missiles than a system in the Czech Republic.
by Stefan Nicola
UPI Germany Correspondent
Berlin (UPI) June 13, 2007
While a joint U.S.-Russian missile defense system operated from a radar station in Azerbaijan may not make much sense, Russian President Vladimir Putin's proposal established one fact: Iran is seen by both powers as a serious threat -- an assessment that could help the West in convincing Moscow to agree to harsher economic sanctions.

Putin's proposal at the Group of Eight summit to operate a missile interceptor system jointly from the Soviet-era Gabala radar station in Azerbaijan diffused tensions with Washington and paved the ground for less aggressive bilateral talks on the issue, after Putin himself had fueled the conflict. If the United States agreed to the proposal, Moscow would "not have to retarget" Russian missiles against Europe, the Russian leader said.

Washington has repeatedly offered Moscow the chance to cooperate in U.S. plans for a system, which would have 10 bunker-protected rockets to be stationed in Poland and a radar station in the Czech Republic. All those cooperation offers had been refused.

The Russian leader's turnaround thus was seen by many observers as merely a strategic move, after he had been branded as the main hurdle to progress on the issue and now presented himself as the one giving an offer of cooperation.

Nevertheless, U.S. President George W. Bush, who has in the past weeks repeatedly tried to mend ties with Putin, called Putin's proposal "interesting," and his national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, said it was a "positive development."

That initial praise likely also is grounded in the fact that hardly anyone has heard about the Soviet-era radar site tucked away some 150 miles northeast of Baku.

Built in 1985, Gabala radar station is designed to monitor the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles in the southern hemisphere, mainly at the hand of U.S. submarines cruising in the Indian Ocean. The station is leased until 2012 for an estimated $5 million a year by Moscow and is a key element of the still functional Russian missile interceptor system.

Both Bush and Hadley assured that the Russian as well as the U.S. proposal would be discussed in greater detail during bilateral talks between the president and Putin in early July at the Bush family's summer compound in Kennebunkport, Maine.

Military observers, however, are doubtful if the proposal would ever be realized, mainly because Washington would have to give up sovereignty if it agreed to Putin's plan.

"With the missile-defence system being such an important aspect of Washington's strategic interests, any conditions for the deployment will be stringent and it is likely particular concern would be raised over operating a system the United States did not have complete control over," Jane's, a British-based security consulting firm, wrote in its forecast on the issue.

Duncan Lennox, a missile expert with Jane's, told Radio Free Europe the Gabala radar would detect missiles fired from Iran quicker; however, it would be less suitable to guide interceptor missiles than a system in the Czech Republic.

"The problem is that if you have the radar too close to the launch point, the missile will overfly that radar and will then be going away from the radar when the interception is made," he said. "That is not good for guiding an interceptor to intercept a ballistic missile. You really want the radar behind or level with the interceptor's launch point if you want that radar to help the interceptor" shoot down the incoming missile, Lennox added.

While the Americans will likely draft a nicely packaged response why the Azerbaijan radar won't be able to serve as a substitute to one in the Czech Republic, Washington can draw one beneficial conclusion from Putin's proposal: It acknowledges Iran as a serious threat that needs to be addressed multilaterally.

Tehran claims its nuclear program is for electricity generation purposes only, but the West still suspects it to be a smokescreen for a nuclear weapons program.

For the West, it will be essential to get Russia's backing for harsher sanctions against the Islamic Republic, to put pressure on the last U.N. Security Council member who is likely going to be more of a problem to play along: China.

The country's energy relations with Iran are becoming closer, and observers fear that Iran will do the same as -- ironically -- Russia has been accused of doing in the past: using its energy assets as a foreign policy pressure tool.

Source: United Press International

related report

US Agents Demonstrate Response To Terrorist Radioactive Threat
by Staff Writers Miami FL (AFP) Jun 13 - Security experts from around the world on Wednesday got a ringside view of US agents responding to a nuclear threat by terrorists, in a simulation at Miami's Orange Bowl football stadium. SWAT teams fast-roped down from a Blackhawk helicopter to storm a building -- represented by a fenced-in area on the football field -- believed to be a terrorist safe-house used to store an explosive device and radioactive materials.

The teams from Miami police and the FBI arrested several of the seven people inside the ficticious building, while some of the terrorists faked being shot dead, causing chuckles among some of the participants in a weeklong conference on nuclear terrorism who attended the event.

A remotely controled robot blew up the explosive device, and the delegates watched from the comfort of the air-conditioned VIP lounge as a bomb-squad specialist inspected the scene, wearing almost 40 kilos (80 pounds) of protective gear in temperatures that soared around 30 degrees centigrade (86 degrees Fahrenheit).

"We know that there are terrorists out there who would love to be able to take any kind of nuclear weapon and detonate it," FBI spokeswoman Judith Orihuela told journalists during the demonstration.

"So we know this scenario could happen and we'll do anything we can to prevent it," she said.

The Miami conference is attended by officials from some 30 nations that signed on to the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism announced in July 2006 by US President George W. Bush and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.

Source: Agence France-Presse

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US Concerned About Possible Secret Iranian Atomic Work
Vienna (AFP) Jun 13, 2007
Iran's refusal to give early notification of new nuclear facilities raises concerns about possible secret atomic work, the US ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Wednesday. Gregory Schulte said in an interview with AFP that Iran was clearly working to master uranium enrichment, the process that makes fuel for civilian nuclear reactors or, at highly refined levels, atom bombs.







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