However, during the 1999 Kosovo conflict, the Serbs, skilled at setting up realistic dummy targets, played upon the weaknesses of the EO systems available to NATO.

With NATO aircraft operating at altitudes over 15,000 feet to stay out of reach of anti-aircraft missiles and artillery, target recognition became very difficult.

In the end, the Serbian countermeasure tactics were successful in attracting a substantial number of NATO guided munitions. In addition to the Serbian tactics, persistent rain and fog degraded the performance of EO equipment. It appeared that adverse weather conditions were a much more serious problem for equipment often described as "all-weather."

In an effort to correct these deficiencies, many armed forces have begun to retrofit older aircraft and equip new platforms with more advanced EO devices. Some 3,500 new manned aircraft and 3,000 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) will be built in the next ten years.

These numbers combined with EO modernization programs will create an airborne and space-based EO market worth $14.7 billion over the next ten years, according to a new report by Forecast International.

"The Market for Airborne and Space-Based Electro-Optical Systems" reviews a sampling of the electro-optical systems market by surveying a number of lead products and systems. The report is available as part of the Forecast International's Electro-Optical Systems binder service, or as an individual report.

Based on a sample group of 40 systems, Forecast International expects electro-optical expenditures to total approximately $7.25 billion through 2005, rising slightly to a total of $7.48 billion for the latter years (2006-2010).

Among the trends in airborne and space-based EO systems is the increased use of UAVs. In the wake of the U.S. EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft incident over China this past spring, an alternative to manned reconnaissance flights, such as UAVs, seems desirable.

In an incident, like that of the EP-3 over China, a remote UAV operator would have the option to either crash the vehicle or attempt to fly a damaged UAV out of enemy territory.

Any of these options would have avoided international embarrassment and possible compromise of vital technology. Most of all, the use of UAVs eliminates the risk of losing well trained aircrew members.

The recent destruction of two Predator UAVs in Iraq without any loss of life has accentuated the advantages of UAV use in reconnaissance operations.

The pending military operation in response to the terrorist attacks on the US is accentuating this trend toward reconnaissance UAV use. After the September 11 attacks, over $1.3 billion in emergency funds were allocated for the sole purpose of improving intelligence gathering.

Much of this money is earmarked for production acceleration of reconnaissance aircraft like the RC-135V/W and the Global Hawk long range UAV.

Additional efforts are being made to speed up procurement of the RQ-1 Predator UAV. In the meantime, UAVs around the world are being re-deployed to Central Asia and are currently flying missions over Afghanistan.

The Bush Administration's drive for a National Missile Defense (NMD) system may provide an added push for EO programs such as the Airborne Laser (ABL) and Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) programs.

However, domestic and external opposition, compounded by fiscal restraints, may stall any effort to deploy a NMD system. Nevertheless, research and investment into ABL and SBIRS will continue at a steady rate.

The advent of new technologies such as Hyperspectral Imagery (HSI) may give an added boost to the EO market towards the end of the decade. Once this technology, which will help analysts to better discriminate between real and dummy targets, is fully developed, widespread deployment of HSI equipment is likely to follow.

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