Taiwan would be virtually powerless in the face of such a saturation offensive, the officials said Tuesday, but urged the public not to panic.

Navy captain Chang Ching, an instructor at the National Defense University, said theoretically China's ballistic missiles, including the continental DF-31s now in service, could threaten the island.

"But it would be too costly to attack Taiwan using long-range missiles," he said. Long-range ballistic missiles cost tens of millions of dollars each -- a cost which not in proportion to their destructive power.

"Most likely the Chinese communists could use M class missiles carrying traditional warheads to strike at cities, military establishments and airports here," he said.

It was not clear about the exact size of the M class stockpiles, but military analysts here estimated the People's Liberation Army has up to 400 of the missiles. The firing ranges of improved M-9s and M-11s may run up to 600 kilometers (360 miles) and 480 kilometers respectively.

Military experts estimate Beijing may increase the number of M-class missiles to around 650 in five years.

To counter the threat, Washington in 1993 sold to Taiwan three PAC-II Plus batteries -- an improved version of the Patriot anti-missile weapon used during the Gulf War.

The three batteries have been deployed in the Greater Taipei area, which is the most populous part of the island.

Even with the Patriots, Taiwan is still exposed to a military attack by China. During the Gulf War Patriots were only able to intercept about 50 percent of incoming missiles.

With that in mind, Washington had approved the sale of a long-range radar system to Taipei, said Major General Tyson Fu, head of the university's Institute of Strategic Studies.

Chang urged the public not to panic over China's growing missile threat.

"After all, the M-9 missile is not as powerful as many may imagine," Chang said, adding it could create a crater 10 meters (33 feet) deep and 30 meters (99 feet) in diameter.

He said the people's will to fight was more important.

Meanwhile the military Tuesday launched an air raid exercise in northern Taiwan to test the island's air defense capability.

In the capital city, passengers in the streets sought shelter and traffic was halted for 20-minutes.

Tensions between Taipei and Beijing have intensified since Chen Shui-bian, from the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, was elected president.

In his inauguration speech, Chen said he would follow the island's "four Nos" -- provided China did not invade the island.

The "four Nos" are pledges not to declare independence, not to change the national title, not to push for "state-to-state" relations to be included in Taiwan's constitution and not to promote a referendum to change the status quo in regard to independence.

But Chen has refused to accept the mainland interpretation of the "one China" policy used by Beijing to encapsulate its demands of sovereignty over the island, agreeing only to regard the concept as a topic for discussion.

Beijing has regarded Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification with the "motherland" since their separation in 1949 at the end of a civil war.

Copyright 2000 AFP. All rights reserved. The material on this page is provided by AFP and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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