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Canada lagging in LNG
by Staff Writers
Calgary, Alberta (UPI) May 11, 2012


Canada needs to invest about $50 billion in its liquefied natural gas sector over the next five to 10 years to avoid losing out on opportunities in emerging demand markets, an Ernst & Young report says.

The E&Y report warns other LNG-producing countries around the world are capitalizing on Asia's demand for LNG and Canada is lagging behind.

"Total Pacific basin demand is expected to rise from 120 million metric tons today to 241 million metric tons per annum in 2020, and exporters in Australia, Russia, Malaysia and Qatar have been quick to respond," Lance Mortlock, of Ernst & Young's oil and gas practice, said in a statement.

"These countries are already well on track to developing the necessary infrastructure to fulfill the needs of this expanding market -- leaving little room for Canada."

Ernst & Young predicts Canada could have about 12 million metric tons per annum of LNG export capacity ready by 2015.

By comparison, Qatar, currently the world's largest LNG exporter, has 77 million metric tons per annum planned by 2015, more than six times Canada's capacity, the firm says.

For Canada's LNG projects, hundreds of miles of pipelines still need to be laid to deliver the gas from British Columbia to coastal ports.

Noting $50 billion of industry investment would likely be needed over the next five to 10 years to take full advantage of LNG demand from Asia, Ernst & Young recommends Canadian companies pursue joint ventures and partnerships to help accelerate their plans.

"To avoid losing out on opportunities in emerging demand markets, Canada must accelerate infrastructure development, seek new capital sources, and tie down long-term customers," Mortlock said.

The United States -- now Canada's only external customer for LNG -- is slowly weaning itself of Canada's gas, as it turns to its own massive shale gas reserves.

"Over the intermediate and longer term we are very much aware that the U.S. has massive shale gas and oil shale which they will be developing, and that's another critical reason why we have to diversify our markets. … Demand from the U.S. will not be keeping pace," Canada's Minister of Natural Resources Joe Oliver said last week, the Financial Post reports.

The United States could become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas by 2016, a net pipeline exporter by 2025, and an overall net exporter of natural gas by 2021, the U.S. Department of Energy says.

The Ernst & Young report also cites Australia, Qatar, Malaysia and Russia -- which are moving ahead with LNG projects and signing long-term supply deals -- as quickly becoming "powerful threats" to Canada.

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