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Blair's Fate Lies In Lebanon

The middle east has been the graveyard of many a British leader. AFP Image
by Hannah K. Strange
UPI U.K. Correspondent
London (UPI) Aug 08, 2006
British Prime Minister Tony Blair's position on the current conflict in the Middle East has left him isolated from much of his own administration and the Labor Party. At a time when he is already under considerable pressure to relinquish his leadership, it is a gamble that may ultimately lead to his downfall.

As the Labor Party's annual fall conference approaches, many members are hoping Blair will take the opportunity set out a timetable for his departure, a possibility hinted at by Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott.

Disturbed by numerous aspects of his leadership from his support for the Iraq war, allegations of political corruption and, most recently, his perceived support for Israel in its offensive against Lebanese Hezbollah, some dissenters are warning they may force a leadership contest if he refuses to bow out gracefully.

The year 2006 has not, by anyone's standards, been one of Blair's best years. Spiraling violence in Iraq and Afghanistan, internal rows over policies from education and health to nuclear power and atomic weapons, a humiliating local election result and a string of government scandals, the list goes on.

On the domestic front, the most damaging crisis, and one that may yet claim Blair's scalp, is the so-called "cash for peerages" row. Blair is expected to be questioned by police as part of a criminal investigation into claims that he nominated wealthy businessmen for seats in the House of Lords -- Parliament's unelected chamber -- in exchange for large cash loans to the Labor Party. If the interview goes ahead as expected in the fall, he will become the first British prime minister to be questioned in connection with a corruption investigation since David Lloyd George in the 1920s who, incidentally, was also accused of selling seats in the House of Lords. Regardless of whether or not charges are eventually brought, the political spectacle of being hauled in by police may be enough to seal the prime minister's fate.

Now there is Lebanon, a political storm fast becoming Blair's new Iraq, not that the position is yet vacant.

Prominent Labor figures have been queuing up to criticize Blair's failure to call for a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, who have been engaged in a bloody cross-border battle for four weeks. Many are angered by Blair's seemingly unquestioning alliance with the Bush administration, which has never wavered in its support for Israel and its bid to crush Hezbollah.

Neither are his critics the usual suspects.

Former Labor Minister Joan Ruddock spoke last week of widespread "despair" within the party at Blair's approach to the conflict, which she warned could spill over into the party conference in September.

"I have not met any member of the Labor Party myself who actually agrees with our strategy," she told BBC Radio.

Parliamentary Labor Party Leader Ann Clwyd, a staunch Blair loyalist and a supporter of the Iraq invasion, said the "vast majority" of backbench Labor parliamentarians wanted a cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon and were critical of Israeli policy.

This rift reaches right to Blair's own cabinet, and appears to be widening. According to a ministerial source quoted by the BBC, senior Foreign Office officials acting on behalf of Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett tried "strenuously" to persuade Downing Street to press Washington for an immediate cease-fire, but were rebuffed.

Meanwhile Jack Straw, leader of the House of Commons and the former foreign secretary, took the highly unusual step of speaking out publicly against Israel's operations Saturday, describing the offensive as "disproportionate." International Development Secretary Hilary Benn has also made his concerns public, while Education Secretary David Miliband was widely reported to have raised objections to Downing Street's position at last week's Cabinet meeting.

But the source revealed that the Cabinet opposition was greater than previously known, disclosing that one or more other ministers had passed notes to Blair at the meeting "saying that he should not take their silence as consent for this policy."

Blair is already facing the prospect of a leadership challenge should he fail to make an announcement about his departure at September's conference. Labor backbenchers have warned of a revolt if he does not formally recognize that this year's conference will be his last as prime minister, and plan to gather signatures calling for a leadership contest. Blair could also see a challenge from Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown, his anointed -- and increasingly impatient -- successor.

But while Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott has previously signaled such an announcement might be forthcoming, Blair now appears to have a renewed appetite for the job. Close colleagues quoted by the Telegraph newspaper Sunday said that a newly "rejuvenated" Blair was now intent on remaining in Downing Street for "at least another year." He himself said Thursday he would like to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict before stepping down, signaling he could be in for a very long haul indeed.

The September conference, therefore, will be a pivotal moment in both Blair's career and the direction of the Labor Party. Seventy signatures of Labor parliamentarians are needed to trigger a leadership contest, which would then be put to the vote among ordinary Labor members. These, it must be noted, are the members who last week elected Walter Wolfgang, the 83-year-old activist famously ejected from last year's party conference for protesting over the Iraq war, to Labor's National Executive Committee. It is a rather telling gauge of the mood among the wider membership.

Blair's fate is now inextricably linked to that of the Lebanese and Israeli civilians living in fear of the violence raging through their region. Should a United Nations resolution bring an immediate cease-fire and a successful long-term resolution of the conflict, he may yet be vindicated in his approach. But should the bombs keep falling and the death toll keep on rising, it may prove the final nail in the coffin of his leadership.

Source: United Press International

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Rebuild or wait? The Lebanese dilemma
Naameh, Lebanon, Aug 6, 2006
At 75, Alia Mattar is an unshakeable optimist. Already she is looking for stonemasons to repair fissures in her house caused by the shock waves of Israeli bombs hitting Naameh bridge, 15 kilometres (nine miles) south of Beirut.







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