In his first public speech since retiring in 2002, Admiral Chris Barrie said Australia's small population would see it become a "relatively insignificant country in the Asia Pacific region" within the next half-century.

"The relationship with China will become hugely more important for economic and social reasons," he told a conference bringing together defence chiefs and top officials from 27 countries, including the US.

At the same time Australians will likely feel "resentful and untrusting" of traditional alliances, including the nation's most important defence pact the decades-old ANZUS (Australia-New Zealand-United States) arrangement, he said.

"Pressures on the ANZUS alliance relationship between US and Australia over the next 50 years could even lead to a fracturing of the alliance," he said.

Barrie said while it was not inevitable that the ANZUS alliance, under which each country is obliged to support the other in the event of an attack, would unravel, it could come under pressure over the issue of Taiwan.

China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has threatened to invade if it declares formal independence, while the US is obliged by law to offer Taiwan a means of self-defense if its security is threatened.

"The thing about China, right now Australia enjoys I think a comprehensively good relationship with China at all levels," Barrie told AFP.

"We are not certain where China is going to head, we are very optimistic and hopeful that China will be a force for good in the Asia-Pacific region.

"That creates wonderful opportunities for a small, insignificant country of 28 million people.

"And I can see a day when Australians will say to themselves, 'You know we've got to balance what we do with the United States with what we do with China'. It's not enough to say, all the way with the United States."

With official figures predicting an Australian population of only 28 million by 2050, there was no question that the country would lose relevance in the coming decades, he said.

"To go back to the demographics and economics for the region in the next 50 years, if you start to look at all the countries in the Asia-Pacific, seriously the only one in decline is Australia," he saod.

"If you look in to Indonesia, you look in to Malaysia, any of those countries, their future looks a lot better than ours."

Barrie, who served 41 years in the navy including four as defence chief, said Australia would not be the only country playing a minor role in the future.

"I think the Taiwanese themselves ought to get themselves used to the idea that they are going to be a small player in a very big jigsaw," he said.

Barrie said that the one area Australia could excel was in providing leadership to developing neighbours such as Papua New Guinea.

"We are looked to for a sort of leadership role in all this. I think we have not done enough to provide that," he said.

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