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Analysis: India's Balancing Act With Iran

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan (C), US President George W. Bush (L) and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh attand 14 September 2005 theinternational launch of the United Nations Democracy Fund at the 60th session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. President George W. Bush during his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting had expressed concern over India's position on Iran's nuclear program. AFP photo by Jim Watson.

New Delhi (UPI) Sep 15, 2005
India's strengthening relations with the United States are at a crossroads on its Iran policy, requiring a delicate and balancing diplomatic management to wriggle out of the crisis leaving no space for India to choose between old and new friends, Indian analysts said Wednesday.

India has to select either of them on Sept. 19 during the meeting of International Atomic Energy Agency of which New Delhi is a member. The United Nations constituted monitoring agency will take up the issue of Iran's nuclear program and likely refer it to the U.N. Security Council for possible sanctions. India as a votary will have to decide which side to vote.

"This is really crucial time ahead for India, who has recently improved its relations with Washington and at the same time could not afford to loose old friend like Iran," said Rajiv Sharma, a senior analyst.

He said its time for Indian diplomacy to prove its ability and worth as the Bush administration would not like to compromise on this issue.

President George W. Bush during his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly meeting had expressed concern over India's position on Iran's nuclear program.

"Iran had to live up to its commitments to international non-proliferation laws," Singh said after the meeting in New York.

He said India is strongly opposed to proliferation of nuclear weapons and asked Iran to comply with the U.N. monitoring agency. Singh told Bush New Delhi had made no exception in opposing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

As the meeting of the IAEA nears, Indian diplomats have geared up their diplomatic efforts to work out a formula that could save India from an embarrassment, said an Indian Foreign Ministry official.

There are people in the Indian foreign establishment who believe the Bush administration should appreciate the compulsion of coalition politics in a democracy like India, where the Singh government is surviving on the outside support of Left parties.

"India's relations with the U.S. and Iran could co-exist. Only solution to this crisis is to give and take," said Sharma.

He said if the United States were to fulfill India's civilian nuclear energy requirements, India should not hesitate to walk out of Iran-Pakistan-Tehran gas pipeline.

The United States has been pressuring India and Pakistan to abandon the $ 7 billion gas pipeline. Accusing Iran of secretly developing a nuclear program, Washington asked both India and Pakistan to distance themselves from Tehran.

India had not responded to the U.S. directive.

India and Iran are old friends. Besides, India has its oil interest in Tehran as it accounts for more than five percent of India's crude oil requirement and has helped India in its quest for energy security.

With increasing U.S. pressure to drop the gas pipeline project, analysts feel that this plan is unlikely to materialize.

"It will remain as a dream pipeline for India," Sharma said.

U.S. lawmakers have threatened that the agreement signed between India and United States on civilian nuclear energy in July could be risky if New Delhi refrained from voting against Tehran in the IAEA governing body meeting.

The compulsions of domestic politics have put the United Progressive Alliance government by Singh in a difficult situation. The communist party, which has a deciding strength of 59 lawmakers in the lower House of 573 in Indian Parliament, has been pressurizing the government not to dump Tehran. The ruling coalition survives on the Left's support.

Merely five days are left for the crucial IAEA meeting, India is yet to formulate its position on the voting, which seems imminent to refer the U.N. nuclear program to the U.N. Security Council. Washington needs only 18 votes to muster majority against Iran.

"So far India has tried to do a balancing act, which can no longer go on," said Sharma, the analyst.

India and U.S. relations were improved and strengthened after the two sides signed an agreement under which Washington agreed to supply nuclear energy to India. The United States assurance requires an approval from the U.S. Congress.

Washington had also asked India to separate its nuclear program. New Delhi immediately accepted that it would separate its civil and military installations to meet the international obligations. The U.S. also for the first time recognized India as a "responsible nuclear powered nation".

The issue regarding change in U.S. non-proliferation laws is currently being debated in the U.S. Congress.

"We hope the Congress would adopt it despite there were some voices of criticism," Bush told Singh.

The two largest democracies of the country are of the view that a consensus should be evolved on the nuclear issue. Terrorism was another issue that figured in the meeting. While Singh expressed India's full support in global war against terrorism, he complained that Pakistan still has the infrastructure to promote terrorism.

Bush said the United States would like both neighbors to resolve their differences amicably.

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