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After Fallujah, what's next in the battle against IS?
by Staff Writers
Fallujah, Iraq (AFP) June 26, 2016


Iran says five rebels killed in Kurdish region
Tehran (AFP) June 26, 2016 - Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards said it killed five armed rebels in recent clashes along its border with Iraqi Kurdistan, state media reported.

A statement from the Guards, published late Saturday by official news agency IRNA, said "five armed rebels linked to counter-revolutionary groups" were killed the night before.

It did not give the name of the rebel group, though a number of separatist Kurdish insurgencies are known to be active in the region.

The commander the Revolutionary Guards' ground forces, General Mohammad Pakpour, threatened to target Kurds across the border in northern Iraq.

"Since the main bases of these terrorists are in northern Iraq, if they don't follow through with commitments to stop these attacks, their bases will be targeted where they are," said the Iranian general.

There have been increasing reports of clashes in the northwest after a period of relative calm in the past year or more.

The Guards said on June 16 that similar clashes had led to the death of 12 "terrorists" and three Iranian soldiers in the city of Oshnavieh.

That followed reports that five Kurdish rebels were killed in the region a few days earlier.

Iraq commander says Fallujah retaken with limited damage
Fallujah, Iraq (AFP) June 26, 2016 - The commander of Iraqi forces that retook Fallujah from the Islamic State group said Sunday the operation had been carried out with limited damage to the city.

"The percentage of destruction in Fallujah is no more than 10 percent and is spread across all neighbourhoods of the city," Lieutenant General Abdelwahab al-Saadi told AFP.

Saadi and other commanders on Sunday announced that Fallujah had been brought under full control of the security forces after they retook IS's last positions in the Jolan neighbourhood.

The recapture of Fallujah, bar a few remaining pockets of IS fighters, brings to a close a broad offensive launched more than a month ago on one of the jihadists' most emblematic bastions.

"This battle was the cleanest urban battle in the whole of Iraq," Saadi told Iraqiya state television.

"The level of damage in Fallujah caused by military operations and by the terrorists is between 10 and 15 percent," Mohammed Yassin, a member of the Anbar provincial council, told AFP.

Southern neighbourhoods appeared to have suffered most as elite forces first breached IS defences around the city from the south.

The jihadists put up less resistance than expected once they were cornered in northern neighbourhoods.

While many of the city's buildings bore the scars of war, most were still standing.

The US-led coalition offered some aerial assistance during the Fallujah operation but was less involved than six months ago during the offensive to retake Ramadi, the capital of Anbar province in which Fallujah is also located.

In Ramadi, the United Nations said that the destruction -- which some Iraqi government officials have estimated at 80 percent -- was worse than anywhere else in Iraq.

More than 80,000 civilians were forced to flee Fallujah during the operation and limited damage to the city would offer some hope they can return to their homes faster than Ramadi residents.

"It is still too early to speak of returns for the tens of thousands of civilians who fled from Fallujah," said Nasr Muflahi, Iraq director at the Norwegian Refugee Council.

"We urge prudence and restraint in the communications with the displaced families as we have seen how, elsewhere, areas recaptured by Iraqi forces are still unsafe," he said.

Muflahi said a thorough mine-clearing operation needed to be undertaken to determine which areas were safe.

When it retreats from an area, IS systematically rigs homes with booby traps and plants roadside bombs.

After Iraqi forces took full control of the Islamic State group's bastion of Fallujah, what's next in the battles against the jihadists, not just in Iraq but in Syria and further afield?

The loss of Fallujah is the latest in a series of defeats shrinking the "caliphate" that the group proclaimed two years ago over the vast areas it conquered in Iraq and Syria in 2014.

What is the next big battle in Iraq?

Fallujah was one of only two major cities IS still held in Iraq and the security forces are now training their sights on Mosul, whose fall commanders and analysts believe would spell doom for the caliphate in Iraq.

The battle for the northern city will have different contours than previous ones, with an ever greater variety of forces than usual potentially involved in operations and staking their claim in a post-IS Mosul.

Operations aimed at retaking Mosul began months ago, with an offensive moving up the Tigris from the south and another led by Kurdish forces moving from the east, but the battle appears far from starting in earnest.

What else does IS control in Iraq?

After losing Fallujah and surrounding areas, the Iraqi half of IS's "caliphate" looks increasingly fragmented, with limited territorial contiguity between some its remaining bastions.

IS has lost the major towns and cities of Anbar but still controls the far west of the vast province, including the town of Al-Qaim near the Syrian border.

The jihadists also have fixed positions in the Hamreen mountain range north of Baghdad as well as further north around Hawijah.

To the west of Mosul, IS also still holds Tal Afar, a city which was one of the first that the group took when it swept into Iraq just over two years ago.

Where are IS falling back in Syria?

On May 31, a US-backed Kurdish-Arab alliance launched a vast offensive to retake the IS stronghold on Manbij in north Syria, which lies on a key supply route for the jihadists from the Turkish border.

In around 10 days, the Syrian Democratic Forces -- who are supported by air strikes from a US-led coalition -- surrounded the city, cutting off the supply line to the jihadist group's de-facto capital of Raqa city.

SDF forces have since entered the city and are edging slowly towards its centre, as IS puts up fierce resistance with suicide bombers and car bombs.

If the jihadists lost Manbij, it would be their second most serious defeat since emerging in the chaos of Syria's civil war, after regime forces retook the ancient city of Palmyra from them in late March.

Is Raqa under threat?

Since late May, IS has faced two offensives in the northern province of Raqa, which the jihadist group has controlled since 2014.

The SDF launched an advance from the north on May 31, but soon headed west towards Manbij in neighbouring Aleppo province.

And Russia-backed regime forces led an offensive into the province from the southwest, advancing towards the IS-held town of Tabqa. But suicide bombers drove Syrian regime troops out of the province in a lightning counter-attack last week.

Experts have said the troops backing President Bashar al-Assad in the offensive were probably not elite forces and too few to make gains in the desert area.

The provincial capital of Raqa remains the main strategic and symbolic goal for anti-IS forces, but analysts say that the jihadist group's strong defences in the city mean it is unlikely to fall soon.

Can IS hold on to Sirte in Libya?

Since mid-May, Libyan pro-government forces have pressed an offensive to retake Sirte, a coastal city east of the capital Tripoli that has been under IS control since last June.

On June 9, forces loyal to the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) entered Sirte, which is the only main city held by the jihadist group in Libya.

They have pushed the jihadists into a residential zone of just five square kilometres (two square miles) inside the city, but IS has hit back with suicide car bombs and sniper fire.

Cities and towns retaken from IS in Iraq and Syria
Baghdad (AFP) June 26, 2016 - Iraqi commanders announced the complete recapture of key Islamic State group stronghold Fallujah on Sunday after declaring victory in the city a week earlier.

Here is a recap of key cities and towns retaken from IS in Iraq and neighbouring Syria:

Iraq

FALLUJAH: Anbar province's second city and one of IS's most emblematic bastions in the country, located just 50 kilometres (30 miles) from Baghdad. It was seized by anti-government fighters in 2014 and later became a key IS stronghold.

While the battle has been won, Iraq still faces a major humanitarian crisis in its aftermath, with tens of thousands of people who fled the fighting desperately in need of assistance in the searing summer heat.

RAMADI: The capital of Anbar, the country's largest province that stretches from the borders with Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia to just west of the capital.

IS seized Ramadi, located 100 kilometres (60 miles) west of Baghdad, in May 2015 in an assault involving dozens of suicide bombers driving explosives-rigged vehicles. Iraqi forces launched an operation to retake the city late last year and declared full control over the area earlier this year.

TIKRIT: Hometown of late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein located 160 kilometres (100 miles) north of Baghdad, it was the second city after Mosul to fall to IS. It was recaptured in April 2015 by Iraqi troops, police and Shiite-dominated paramilitaries. The operation, which was at that time the largest by Iraqi forces against IS, was helped by the fact that much of Tikrit's civilian population had fled the city.

SINJAR: Iraqi Kurdish forces backed by US-led coalition air strikes recaptured Sinjar, 400 kilometres (250 miles) northwest of Baghdad, from IS last November. That cut a key supply line linking areas held by the jihadists in Iraq and Syria. IS captured Sinjar in August 2014 and carried out a brutal campaign against its Yazidi minority that included massacres, enslavement and rape.

BAIJI: Iraqi forces recaptured the town of Baiji, 200 kilometres (120 miles) north of Baghdad in October 2015.

Baiji and the country's largest refinery, located nearby, were the scenes of some of the longest-running battles with IS in Iraq. The town lies at a major crossroads and its recapture was seen as key to preparing the ground for offensives in Anbar and Mosul, the last major Iraqi city held by IS.

Syria

PALMYRA: Known as the "Pearl of the Desert", Palmyra was overrun by IS in May 2015, after which the jihadists blew up UNESCO-listed temples and looted ancient relics.

Syrian regime forces backed by Russian warplanes and allied militia retook the ancient city from IS in March this year.

KOBANE: A Kurdish town in northern Syria on the Turkish border. It became a symbol of the fight against IS, and the jihadists were driven out of Kobane in January 2015 after more than four months of fierce fighting with Kurdish forces backed by US-led strikes.

The city, known in Arabic as Ain al-Arab, is the capital of one of three semi-autonomous "cantons" established by Kurds after the Syrian war erupted.

TAL ABYAD: Another city on the Turkish border, it was captured by Kurds in June 2015. Tal Abyad lies on a key supply route between Turkey and IS stronghold Raqa, and jihadist fighters and arms regularly passed through the city before its recapture.


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