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30 years on, questions remain over why so many died in Tangshan quake

by Robert J. Saiget
Tangshan, China (AFP) Jul 27, 2006
== Thirty years after China's Tangshan earthquake killed 240,000 people, controversy remains over whether the government could have heeded warnings and prevented the enormous loss of life.

The most deadly earthquake of the 20th century measured 7.8 on the Richter scale and devastated Tangshan city, 200 kilometers (120 miles) east of Beijing, at 3:42 on the morning of July 28, 1976.

Over 90 percent of the buildings in the city were flattened in about 15 seconds, while many of those trapped alive under the debris were killed 15 hours later when a 7.1 degree aftershock hit.

But in Qinglong county, about 70 kilometers from Tangshan city, earthquake preparations by local officials resulted in nearly zero fatalities despite over 180,000 buildings being flattened.

The stark contrast over the two locations has led to accusations that Tangshan and central government officials ignored widespread warnings from scientists that a major earthquake was about to hit.

"My view is that the Tangshan earthquake had both elements of a human calamity and a natural disaster," said Zhang Qingzhou, a survivor of the disaster and author of the just published book: "The Alarming Record of Tangshan."

"The difference of whether you prepare for an earthquake or not is huge. Qianlong county officials did thorough preparations and only one person died and that was due to a heart attack."

Much of the problem was that central authorities, embroiled in the disastrous 10-year Cultural Revolution that ended in 1976, failed to heed the warnings of many local seismologists in Tangshan and Beijing, he told AFP.

Zhang pointed to a meeting in Tangshan 14 days before the disaster during which local seismologists stated the region was likely to suffer from a magnitude 7.0 earthquake or higher at the end of July or beginning of August.

"This prediction was made at a big public meeting attended by the vice head of the (central government's) China Earthquake Administration," said Zhang, 47.

"It was one of the most precise earthquake predictions ever, it named the time, the place, and the size of the earthquake."

Although the ministry-level administration and local Tangshan authorities did not take any action, Qianlong county officials at the meeting immediately returned home and began earthquake preparations, he said.

The entire population of the county, about 470,000 people, moved outdoors where they slept, ate, worked and held classes.

School students were enrolled in checking well water levels, rodent behavior and the flight of birds for telltale signs of a pending earthquake, he said.

In 1996, the United Nations commended Qianlong county as a case study in disaster reduction.

Qian Gang, a journalist and author of the 1987 book: "Tangshan Earthquake," which was republished last year, confirmed there were warnings from experts but said no action was taken because of lack of certainty about the predictions.

"The main problem was most of the top seismologists were divided over precisely when and where the earthquake would take place and the magnitude," Qian told AFP.

"Earthquake prediction is not a perfect science, so these three key elements needed to be widely agreed to before action could be taken."

Qian, a former journalist for the China Disaster Reduction News, pointed out that most predictions said a possible earthquake could happen in "northern China."

But a quake measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale had already struck the northeastern province of Liaoning in February 1975 and a 6.3 earthquake hit neighboring Inner Mongolia in April 1976, he said.

"For these reasons, I view the earthquake as a natural disaster, not a human calamity," Qian said.

Qian and Zhang both said the Cultural Revolution played a role in hampering the decision making process, especially as leader Mao Zedong was on his death bed in July 1976.

"The main goal of earthquake prediction at the time was to protect Mao Zedong, if an earthquake was about to strike then Mao would have to be moved to a safe place," Qian said.

This put enormous pressure on officials who feared that if they made such a big call about an impending earthquake and their prediction was wrong, they could be severely punished, he said.

Besides that, the then head of the China Earthquake Association, Hu Keshi, was being heavily criticized in July for his links to Mao's eventual successor, Deng Xiaoping, according to Qian.

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China issues guidelines against police torture
Beijing (AFP) Jul 26, 2006
China on Wednesday issued guidelines aimed at stopping the use of torture by police in dealing with suspects and criminals, state media said. Previous regulations only prohibited law enforcement and judicial officers from using "brutal means" to extract confessions without explaining what that meant, Xinhua said.







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