IEA forecasts for Indian, Chinese energy demand
Paris (AFP) Nov 7, 2007
The International Energy Agency focused on the impact of soaring demand from Asian giants China and India in its 2007 World Energy Outlook.
Here are some key predictions by the energy watchdog.
The figures and dates are based on current energy consumption trends. Future action by governments to reduce demand would affect the forecasts.
They are also based on an assumption of economic growth in both countries of 6.0 percent per year on average for the 2005-2030 period, a rate described as "conservative" by the IEA. Higher growth would increase energy demand.
- China will surpass the United States to become the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions this year.
- China's per capita emissions in 2030 are only 40 percent of those of the United States.
- China's energy demand will surpass that of the United States soon after 2010.
- Chinese energy demand will grow by 3.2 percent every year and double between 2005-2030.
- Chinese oil demand for transport quadruples between 2005-2030.
- New vehicle sales in China exceed those of the United States by 2015.
- Oil production in China peaks at 3.9 million barrels per day "early in the next decade."
- China needs to add 1,300 gigawatts to its electricity-generating capacity, more than the total installed capacity currently in the United States.
- To meet demand on current trends, China needs to invest 3.7 trillion dollars in energy infrastructure between 2005-2030.
- Each dollar invested in more efficient electrical appliances saves 3.50 dollars of investment in electricity supply.
- Chinese investment in electrical applicance or vehicle efficiency would reduce emissions around the world because the country is a net exporter of these products.
- India becomes the world's third-biggest emitter by about 2015.
- Indian energy demand is set to double between 2005-2030 and grows on average by 3.6 percent over this period per year.
- The number of Indian relying on biomass for cooking and heating drops from 668 million in 2005 to about 470 million in 2030.
- The share of the population with access to electricity rises from 62 percent to 96 percent by 2030.
- Indian power generation capacity more than triples by 2030, with 400 gigawatts more than in 2005 -- the equivalent of the installed capacity of Japan, South Korea and Australia.
- To meet demand on current trends, India needs to invest 1.25 trillion dollars in energy infrastructure.
- China's and India's oil imports soar to 19.1 million barrels per day in 2030 on current demand trends, more than Japan and the United States today.
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