In this research, Frost and Sullivan's expert analysts thoroughly examine the commercial aviation, energy, and alternative energy sectors, and analyze the applications and prospects of alternative aviation fuels in commercial aviation.

Successful Adoption of Synthetically Derived FT Fuels
The strong need for energy security is a major driver for synthetically derived Fischer Tropsch (FT) fuels, especially the ones based on fossil sources such as coal and natural gas. As a short-run alternative, FT fuels are ideal, as they do not require any major engine adaptation and have already been effectively used.

The successful precedent set by Sasol in South Africa in powering commercial service aircraft is a major factor driving technology and investment in the direction of synthetic FT fuels. Furthermore, the United States has been actively examining the possibilities of synthetic jet fuels to power its aircraft and aims to fuel 50 percent of its aircraft with synthetic jet fuels by 2016.

However, the cost of setting up a synthetic FT fuel refinery is double that of a conventional refinery, giving rise to questions over price competitiveness versus crude. This is further exacerbated by the uncertainty over legislative support in terms of price subsidies for alternative fuels.

"The major technical issue with synthetic FT fuel is the heavy release of CO2 during the FT process," notes the analyst of this research service. "As long as the issue of appropriate capture, sequestration and storage of the gas is not resolved, it will exercise an active restraint upon investment and business scope, especially in the long run."

Hydroprocessing Technology could Lead the Way for Bio Jet Fuels
Bio jet fuels derived from Green Diesel through hydro processing technology have considerable prospect. Currently, molecular research aims to derive the molecular combination that constitutes the current hydrocarbon jet fuel. Instead of esterification, when feedstock such as vegetable oil or wood waste is made to react with hydrogen in the presence of a catalyst, green diesel is obtained.

The resultant fuel closely resembles the current aviation hydrocarbon fuel. Bio jet fuel obtained from green diesel produced using second-generation biofuels derived from wood waste is being actively examined.

Overall, the market size for alternate fuels in commercial aviation, beginning with the Sasol CTL fuel in the market, is likely to grow from 1.163 million million barrels per day (BPD) in 2007 to 1.631 BPD in 2015.

"Market participants will do well to focus on synthetic fuel alternatives that hold strong prospects for the medium run, while also engaging in biofuel alternatives that are feasible in the long run," says the analyst. "Stakeholder collaboration is crucial for cost-effective solutions as well as to facilitate the entry of new market participants," says the analyst."

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