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TRADE WARS
China 2014 trade surplus rockets to record high: govt
By Fran WANG
Beijing (AFP) Jan 13, 2015


China property firm fails to make bond payment
Shanghai (AFP) Jan 13, 2015 - A Chinese property developer has confirmed it failed to make a $23 million interest payment on a dollar-denominated bond, a statement said, raising worries over the country's weak real estate sector.

Kaisa Group Holdings, which is based in the southern city of Shenzhen, said in a statement late Monday that it did not make a scheduled payment last week on a $500 million bond.

Hong Kong-listed Kaisa could become the first Chinese developer to default on US dollar-denominated bonds, Bloomberg News reported.

"The company did not make a scheduled interest payment of US$23 million which was due 8 January, 2015," Kaisa said in a statement.

"The company is currently assessing its financial position and will make further announcement regarding such interest payment," it said in the statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange.

Kaisa is seeking a financial advisor for restructuring, the statement added.

Last year Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. became modern China's first ever onshore corporate bond default after it failed to make payments of 89.8 million yuan ($14.7 million) for a five-year bond issued in 2012.

Kaisa ranked 15th in terms of "comprehensive strength" among China's top 100 listed property firms last year, according to an industry survey.

Ratings agency Moody's, which downgraded the company last week, said recent developments will undermine property buyers' confidence in Kaisa, particularly in its home market of Shenzhen.

Kaisa's financial woes come as China's property market slows, prompting some cities to roll back policies required by the central government to control housing prices.

Home prices in China's 100 major cities fell 2.69 percent in 2014 from a year earlier, according to the independent China Index Academy.

"Looking into 2015, the national market will still be under high inventory pressures... and downside pressures remain on house prices," it said.

China's trade surplus soared by almost half last year to a record $382 billion, the government announced Tuesday, but the world's second-largest economy again missed its trade growth target due to weakness overseas.

Exports increased 6.1 percent to $2.34 trillion in 2014, while imports rose 0.4 percent to $1.96 trillion, the General Administration of Customs said on its website.

That translated into a trade surplus of $382.46 billion, the highest ever and a 47.2 percent increase on 2013.

China's huge trade surpluses were long a source of friction between Beijing and Washington, as the workshop of the world pumped out manufactured goods and US debt mounted, but the issue receded in more recent years.

Total trade in 2014 rose just 3.4 percent from the year before, far below authorities' aim of about 7.5 percent and the third consecutive year the official target has been missed.

"The world economy recovered rather slowly and couldn't support China's trade growing at a high speed," said Customs spokesman Zheng Yuesheng.

"China's comparative advantage of low costs continued to wane, while investment in China's manufacturing industry from developed economies declined, containing trade (growth)," he added, stressing that foreign-invested companies are responsible for about half the country's exports.

Zheng attributed the record surplus to falling international commodity prices which dragged down import values.

The trade figures come as China's economy rounds out a disappointing 2014, with growth slowing because of manufacturing weakness, falling property prices and high corporate and local government debt burdens. This prompted the central People's Bank of China (PBoC) in November to cut benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded an annual 7.3 percent in the third quarter, the slowest since the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009.

Some economists expect figures showing further weakness at the end of last year and in the year ahead, with authorities openly describing slower and hopefully more sustainable expansion as a "new normal".

- 'Negative factors' -

For December alone, the trade surplus soared 93.5 percent year-on-year to $49.6 billion, as exports increased 9.7 percent to $227.5 billion and imports fell 2.4 percent to $177.9 billion, Customs said.

It had initially given the figures in yuan terms, with different percentage changes as a result of exchange rate movements.

The export figure exceeded the median forecast of six percent by 40 economists in a Bloomberg survey, while the fall in imports was less severe than their prediction of a 6.2 percent decline.

Zheng said that while China's trade growth is likely to rebound this year, it faces headwinds.

"We think the negative factors containing trade growth in 2014 will continue for a certain period of time," he said.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said the outlook for overseas shipments should be brighter this year and import growth is likely to remain soft.

"Looking ahead, although the global economy remains fragile we nonetheless expect growth in many of China's key export markets, such as the US, to stage a slight recovery this year, which should provide support to Chinese exports," he wrote in a note.

"Meanwhile, we think that domestic demand, particularly for commodities, is likely to remain subdued and that those anticipating a stimulus-driven pick-up in investment or a marked turnaround in the property sector will be disappointed," he added.

"As such, import growth is likely to remain weak."

Analysts called for further policy loosening given weak domestic demand.

"With domestic demand growth still depressed, policy easing is still needed," economists of China International Capital Corporation said in a research note.

The record-high trade surplus could lead to volatility in the yuan, which depreciated by three percent against the dollar last year, warned ANZ analysts Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao.

"This divergence has made Chinese corporates become increasingly concerned about their large US dollar debt exposure" they wrote in a report, adding they could rush to buy dollars.

"This could lead (to) both currency overshooting and increased volatility in the (yuan) exchange rate going forward," the analysts added, suggesting that the PBoC would probably intervene in such a scenario to prevent large capital outflows.


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Taiwan mulls plan to open bourse to Chinese buyers
Taipei (AFP) Jan 8, 2015
Taiwan may open up its stock market for the first time to individual Chinese investors later this year in a bid to attract more investments to its shrinking bourse, officials said Thursday. The Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) said it was hoping to make a decision in June whether to go ahead with the plan. Currently mainland Chinese institutions are allowed to invest in Taiwan's st ... read more


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