Copper supply strains could hinder both global development and green energy goals

Led by U-M earth and environmental sciences professor Adam Simon, the research estimates that maintaining global economic growth alone would require 1,100 million metric tons of copper by 2050. Scenarios that include a global shift to electric vehicles and renewable energy demand even more-up to 3 billion metric tons in the most intensive models. Yet only 23 million metric tons of copper were mined in 2024.

Published in SEG Discovery, the study includes contributions from Cornell's Lawrence Cathles and Daniel Wood of the University of Queensland. The researchers argue that copper prices must double-reaching at least $20,000 per metric ton-to make new mine development financially viable.

The analysis shows that building infrastructure in developing regions is also copper-intensive. India alone would require 227 million metric tons, while the infrastructure needs of Africa's 54 nations would demand about 1 billion metric tons of copper.

"The world needs more and more and more copper for business-as-usual economic development, and that creates tension. We suggest that the demand for copper for economic development, which is in essence global human development, should take priority over various electrification scenarios," Simon said. "If it comes down to a competition between 'Are you going to build health care in Africa or are more people going to drive a Tesla?' I would vote for health care in Africa."

Copper's essential role in clean water, sanitation, education, and telecommunications reinforces its status as a development indicator. In the U.S., over a century of growth has resulted in more than 400 pounds of copper per person in infrastructure. In contrast, countries like India may have only around 40 pounds per person.

To sustain economic growth through 2050, 78 new large-scale copper mines would be required, each producing 500,000 metric tons annually. The researchers also propose more efficient electrification strategies, such as hybrid vehicles or diverse energy mixes that include nuclear and natural gas, which would significantly lower copper demands.

Although copper recycling is rising, it is not a game changer yet. If the current annual growth rate of 0.53% continues, recycling will provide just 13.5 million metric tons in 2050-only a third of what is needed to sustain baseline growth.

Simon and his colleagues released a spreadsheet alongside the study, enabling users to model different electrification pathways and their copper requirements.

"First of all, users can fact check the study, but also they can change the study parameters and evaluate how much copper is required if we have an electric grid that is 20% nuclear, 40% methane, 20% wind and 20% hydroelectric, for example," Simon said. "They can make those changes and see what the copper demand will be."

Research Report:Copper: Mining, Development, and Electrification