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Researchers at the University of California, Davis, based their conclusions on stock market expectations, on the theory that long-term investors are good predictors of whether and when new energy technologies will become commonplace, a university release said.
Two key elements of the new theory are market capitalizations, based on stock share prices, and dividends of publicly owned oil companies and alternative-energy companies.
Other analysts have used similar equations to predict events in finance, politics and even sports, the university said.
"Sophisticated investors tend to put considerable effort into collecting, processing and understanding information relevant to the future cash flows paid by securities," UC Davis post-doctoral researcher Nataliya Malyshkina said.
"As a result, market forecasts of future events, representing consensus predictions of a large number of investors, tend to be relatively accurate."
The forecast was published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology.
"Our results suggest it will take a long time before renewable replacement fuels can be self-sustaining, at least from a market perspective," said study author Debbie Niemeier, a UC-Davis professor of civil and environmental engineering.
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